Living Reviews in Relativity: "Prospects for observing and localizing gravitational-wave transients with Advanced LIGO, Advanced Virgo and KAGRA"

© SpringerAbbott, B.P. et al. "Prospects for observing and localizing gravitational-wave transients with Advanced LIGO, Advanced Virgo and KAGRA". Living Rev Relativ 23, 3 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s41114-020-00026-9

Open Access | Review Article

Published: 28 September 2020

Major update of the 2018 edition.


Abstract:

We present our current best estimate of the plausible observing scenarios for the Advanced LIGO, Advanced Virgo and KAGRA gravitational-wave detectors over the next several years, with the intention of providing information to facilitate planning for multi-messenger astronomy with gravitational waves. We estimate the sensitivity of the network to transient gravitational-wave signals for the third (O3), fourth (O4) and fifth observing (O5) runs, including the planned upgrades of the Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo detectors. We study the capability of the network to determine the sky location of the source for gravitational-wave signals from the inspiral of binary systems of compact objects, that is binary neutron star, neutron star–black hole, and binary black hole systems. The ability to localize the sources is given as a sky-area probability, luminosity distance, and comoving volume. The median sky localization area (90% credible region) is expected to be a few hundreds of square degrees for all types of binary systems during O3 with the Advanced LIGO and Virgo (HLV) network. The median sky localization area will improve to a few tens of square degrees during O4 with the Advanced LIGO, Virgo, and KAGRA (HLVK) network. During O3, the median localization volume (90% credible region) is expected to be on the order of 105,106,107 Mpc3 for binary neutron star, neutron star–black hole, and binary black hole systems, respectively. The localization volume in O4 is expected to be about a factor two smaller than in O3. We predict a detection count of 1+12−1(10+52−10) for binary neutron star mergers, of 0+19−0(1+91−1) for neutron star–black hole mergers, and 17+22−11(79+89−44) for binary black hole mergers in a one-calendar-year observing run of the HLV network during O3 (HLVK network during O4). We evaluate sensitivity and localization expectations for unmodeled signal searches, including the search for intermediate mass black hole binary mergers.


Update details: 

Since publication of the previous version (Abbott et al 2018), several updates to the document have been made. The most significant changes are that we now frame our projections in terms of observing runs, we include final results from O2, and we updated our localization projections to include KAGRA as a fourth detector. Key differences are outlined in the Appendix.