Springer Book Archives: eBooks only 8.99 each! Save now >>

Population Studies of Japan

An Essay on the Principle of Sustainable Population

Authors: Hara, Toshihiko

Free Preview
  • Focuses on the future of the global population in the post-demographic transition period
  • Clarifies the principle of sustainable population and the dynamics of demographic transition
  • Discusses recovering replacement fertility, extended lifespans, and the demographic future of the human race
see more benefits

Buy this book

eBook $44.99
price for USA in USD (gross)
  • ISBN 978-981-13-3654-6
  • Digitally watermarked, DRM-free
  • Included format: EPUB, PDF
  • ebooks can be used on all reading devices
  • Immediate eBook download after purchase
Softcover $59.99
price for USA in USD
  • ISBN 978-981-13-3653-9
  • Free shipping for individuals worldwide
  • Immediate ebook access, if available*, with your print order
  • Usually dispatched within 3 to 5 business days.
About this book

This book focuses on the future of the global population and proposes revising Malthus’ Law. The United Nations estimates that the global population will top 11 billion by 2100, at which point its growth will be near an end: it will find a new ‎equilibrium in a long demographic transition from high birth and death rates to low ones.

However, the author reviews the fertility developments reported in the World Population Prospects 2017, which are near or below the replacement level in most regions, with the important exception of Sub-Saharan Africa, and warns of a possible scenario of the extinction of human society. Returning to Malthus, his Essay on the Principle of Population is critically reconsidered. Simple simulations show that exponential growth and decay are unsustainable beyond the narrow ranges of the net reproduction rate. In addition, the length of reproduction periods, which depends on women’s lifespans, plays a pivotal role. The limits of growth are given in any case, to the extent that time and space will permit.

From this perspective, teleological conditions such as instinct, passion, or even natural reproductive tendencies are irrelevant and unnecessary. When the population deviates too far from the replacement level, either its shrinking or massive growth will overshoot the limits of its existence. This principle of sustainable population indicates that the demographic transition must follow a logistic curve.

Using a system dynamics approach, the author constructs a simulation model based on four major loops: fertility, reproduction timing, social capital accumulation, and lifespan. Using only endogenous variables, this model successfully reproduces the historical process of the demographic transition in Japan. Thereby, it shows that the timing and periods of reproduction, maximum fertility, and maximum lifespan hold the key to sustainability. Based on these findings, the author subsequently discusses recovering replacement fertility, extending lifespans, and the demographic future of the human race.


About the authors

Toshihiko Hara, Sapporo City University, professor emeritus (Ph.D. in Sociology)

Table of contents (7 chapters)

Table of contents (7 chapters)

Buy this book

eBook $44.99
price for USA in USD (gross)
  • ISBN 978-981-13-3654-6
  • Digitally watermarked, DRM-free
  • Included format: EPUB, PDF
  • ebooks can be used on all reading devices
  • Immediate eBook download after purchase
Softcover $59.99
price for USA in USD
  • ISBN 978-981-13-3653-9
  • Free shipping for individuals worldwide
  • Immediate ebook access, if available*, with your print order
  • Usually dispatched within 3 to 5 business days.
Loading...

Recommended for you

Loading...

Bibliographic Information

Bibliographic Information
Book Title
An Essay on the Principle of Sustainable Population
Authors
Series Title
Population Studies of Japan
Copyright
2020
Publisher
Springer Singapore
Copyright Holder
The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd.
eBook ISBN
978-981-13-3654-6
DOI
10.1007/978-981-13-3654-6
Softcover ISBN
978-981-13-3653-9
Series ISSN
2198-2724
Edition Number
1
Number of Pages
VIII, 112
Number of Illustrations
42 b/w illustrations, 13 illustrations in colour
Topics

*immediately available upon purchase as print book shipments may be delayed due to the COVID-19 crisis. ebook access is temporary and does not include ownership of the ebook. Only valid for books with an ebook version. Springer Reference Works are not included.