Modelling and Analysis in Arms Control

1. Front Matter

   Pages I-VIII

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2. Introduction: Systems Analysis and Modelling in Arms Control

   1. Introduction: Systems Analysis and Modelling in Arms Control

      • Rudolf Avenhaus, Reiner K. Huber

      Pages 1-29

3. History, Lessons, Issues

   1. Front Matter

      Pages 31-31

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   2. Arms Control and Strategic Military Stability

      • Lothar Rühl

      Pages 33-41

   3. Arms Control for the Long Term

      • Paul Bracken

      Pages 43-50

   4. Arms Control: Lessons Learned and the Future

      • Gwyn Prins

      Pages 51-95

   5. Arms Control Frustration — Understanding the Impasse and How to Break It

      • John R. Bode, Stephan E. Schoderbek

      Pages 97-106

   6. Defense Outlays and Arms Control in the Election Cycle

      • Wulf Albers, Gisela Albers

      Pages 107-122

4. Pre-Arms Control Assessment of Options and Objectives

   1. Front Matter

      Pages 123-123

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   2. Report of the Chairman: What Role Can Analysis Play in Illuminating Arms Control Objectives and Options?

      • Sydell P. Gold

      Pages 125-142

   3. The Use of Arms Control Negotiations Simulation as a Bridge Between Policy and Analysis

      • Frank W. Jenkins

      Pages 143-152

   4. Pre-Arms Control Assessment of the Strategic Balance: The Impact of Objectives and Approaches

      • Alfred Lieberman

      Pages 153-169

   5. Generation of Alternative Force Configurations for Arms Control Negotiations Using Linear Programming

      • Charles ReVelle, Joanne Barker

      Pages 171-181

   6. Stability, SDI, Air Defense and Deep Cuts

      • Jerome Bracken

      Pages 183-206

   7. Pre-Arms Control Assessment of the Conventional Balance in Europe

      • John W. Gibson

      Pages 207-214

   8. On Strategic Stability in Europe without Nuclear Weapons

      • Reiner K. Huber

      Pages 215-238

   9. Defense Expenditure Dynamics Between Two Potential Opponents

      • H. Pastijn, W. Struys

      Pages 239-256

   10. Deterrence and Incomplete Information the Game Theory Approach

       • Werner Güth

       Pages 257-275

5. Negotiations

   1. Front Matter

      Pages 277-277

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   2. Report of the Chairman: Negotiation Issues

      • J. D. Kettelle

      Pages 279-293

This book presents the results of an international workshop on Modelling and Analysis of Arms Control Problems held in Spitzingsee near Munich in October 1985 under the joint sponsorship of NATO's Scientific Affairs Division and the Volkswagen Foundation. The idea for this workshop evolved in 1983, as a consequence of discussions in the annual Systems Science Seminar at the Computer Science Department of the Federal Armed Forces University ~1unich on the topic of Quantitative Assessment in Arms Control 1) • There was wide agreement among the contribu­ tors to that seminar and its participants that those efforts to assess the potential contributions of systems and decision sciences, as well as systems analysis and"mathematical modelling, to arms control issues should be ex­ panded and a forum should be provided for this activity. It was further agreed that such a forum should include political scientists and policy analysts working in the area of arms control.

• Arms control
• NATO
• modeling

• Federal Armed Forces University Munich, Neubiberg, Germany

  Rudolf Avenhaus, Reiner K. Huber

• Ketron, Inc., Rosslyn Center, Arlington, USA

  John D. Kettelle

Policies and ethics