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Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems

Predictive Behavior

An Experimental Study

Authors: Brennscheidt, Gunnar

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eBook $89.00
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  • ISBN 978-3-642-95718-5
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Softcover $119.99
price for USA in USD
  • ISBN 978-3-540-57311-1
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  • Usually dispatched within 3 to 5 business days.
About this book

This book describes a series of laboratory experiments (with a total of 167 independent subjects) on forecasting behavior. In all experiments, the time series to be forecasted was generated by an abstract econometric model involving two or three artificial exogenous variables. This designprovides an optimal background for rational expectations and least-squares learning. As expected, these hypotheses do not explain observed forecasting behavior satisfactorily. Some phenomena related to this lack of rationality are studied: Concentration on changes rather than levels,underestimation of changes and overvaluation of volatile exogenous variables. Some learning behavior is observed. Finally, some aspects of individual forecasts such as prominence of "round" number, dispersion, etc.,are studied.

Table of contents (9 chapters)

  • Literature Review

    Brennscheidt, Dr. Gunnar

    Pages 1-37

  • Rationality in Presence of Exogenous Variables

    Brennscheidt, Dr. Gunnar

    Pages 39-44

  • Experimental Design and Notation

    Brennscheidt, Dr. Gunnar

    Pages 45-58

  • Aggregate Forecasts

    Brennscheidt, Dr. Gunnar

    Pages 59-113

  • Sum Results on Individual Forecasts

    Brennscheidt, Dr. Gunnar

    Pages 115-143

Buy this book

eBook $89.00
price for USA in USD (gross)
  • ISBN 978-3-642-95718-5
  • Digitally watermarked, DRM-free
  • Included format: PDF
  • ebooks can be used on all reading devices
  • Immediate eBook download after purchase
Softcover $119.99
price for USA in USD
  • ISBN 978-3-540-57311-1
  • Free shipping for individuals worldwide
  • Usually dispatched within 3 to 5 business days.
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Bibliographic Information

Bibliographic Information
Book Title
Predictive Behavior
Book Subtitle
An Experimental Study
Authors
Series Title
Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems
Series Volume
403
Copyright
1993
Publisher
Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg
Copyright Holder
Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg
eBook ISBN
978-3-642-95718-5
DOI
10.1007/978-3-642-95718-5
Softcover ISBN
978-3-540-57311-1
Series ISSN
0075-8442
Edition Number
1
Number of Pages
VI, 227
Topics