Causal Analytics for Applied Risk Analysis
Authors: Cox Jr., Louis Anthony, Popken, Douglas A., Sun, Richard X.
Free Preview- Highlights causal analytics methods that answer how changing decision variables can change probabilities of various outcomes
- Presents models, algorithms, principles, and software for deriving causal models from data in order to optimize decisions
- Surveys modern analytics methods useful for decision, risk, and policy analysis
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- About this book
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Causal analytics methods can revolutionize the use of data to make effective decisions by revealing how different choices affect probabilities of various outcomes. This book presents and illustrates models, algorithms, principles, and software for deriving causal models from data and for using them to optimize decisions with uncertain outcomes. It discusses how to describe and summarize situations; detect changes; evaluate effects of policies or interventions; learn what works best under different conditions; predict values of as-yet unobserved quantities from available data; and identify the most likely explanations for observed outcomes, including surprises and anomalies. The book resents practical techniques for causal modeling and analytics that practitioners can apply to improve understanding of how choices affect probabilities of consequences and, based on this understanding, to recommend choices that are more likely to accomplish their intended objectives.The book begins with a survey of modern analytics methods, focusing mainly on techniques useful for decision, risk, and policy analysis. Chapter 2 introduces free in-browser software, including the Causal Analytics Toolkit (CAT) software, to enable readers to perform the analyses described and to apply modern analytics methods easily to their own data sets. Chapters 3 through 11 show how to apply causal analytics and risk analytics to practical risk analysis challenges, mainly related to public and occupational health risks from pathogens in food or from pollutants in air. Chapters 12 through 15 turn to broader questions of how to improve risk management decision-making by individuals, groups, organizations, institutions, and multi-generation societies with different cultures and norms for cooperation. These chapters examine organizational learning, community resilience, societal risk management, and intergenerational collaboration and justice in managing risks.
- About the authors
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Drs. Tony Cox, Douglas Popken, and Richard Sun are experts in risk analysis, operations research, and computer science who have collaborated over the past three decades on diverse analytics applications and software products, including telecommunications network and operations optimization, health risk analysis, and machine learning innovations for making optimal use of costly information. Dr. Cox is also a member of the National Academy of Engineering and Editor-in-Chief of Risk Analysis: An International Journal.
- Table of contents (15 chapters)
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Causal Analytics and Risk Analytics
Pages 3-95
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Causal Concepts, Principles, and Algorithms
Pages 97-247
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Descriptive Analytics for Public Health: Socioeconomic and Air Pollution Correlates of Adult Asthma, Heart Attack, and Stroke Risks
Pages 251-283
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Descriptive Analytics for Occupational Health: Is Benzene Metabolism in Exposed Workers More Efficient at Very Low Concentrations?
Pages 285-311
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How Large Are Human Health Risks Caused by Antibiotics Used in Food Animals?
Pages 313-332
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Table of contents (15 chapters)
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Bibliographic Information
- Bibliographic Information
-
- Book Title
- Causal Analytics for Applied Risk Analysis
- Authors
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- Louis Anthony Cox Jr.
- Douglas A. Popken
- Richard X. Sun
- Series Title
- International Series in Operations Research & Management Science
- Series Volume
- 270
- Copyright
- 2018
- Publisher
- Springer International Publishing
- Copyright Holder
- Springer International Publishing AG, part of Springer Nature
- eBook ISBN
- 978-3-319-78242-3
- DOI
- 10.1007/978-3-319-78242-3
- Hardcover ISBN
- 978-3-319-78240-9
- Softcover ISBN
- 978-3-030-08653-4
- Series ISSN
- 0884-8289
- Edition Number
- 1
- Number of Pages
- XXII, 588
- Number of Illustrations
- 26 b/w illustrations, 95 illustrations in colour
- Topics
