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Why Fiscal Stimulus Programs Fail, Volume 2

Statistical Tests Comparing Monetary Policy to Growth Effects

  • Book
  • © 2021

Overview

Authors:
  1. John J. Heim

    1. Department of Economics, State University of New York, Albany, USA

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  • Tests the assertion that accommodative monetary policy can eliminate the "crowd out" problem" in fiscal stimulus programs
  • Provides the largest scale scientific test on fiscal stimulus programs, with approximately 1000 separate statistical tests on the US economy included
  • Concludes that Federal Reserve efforts to accommodate fiscal stimulus programs were not large enough to offset any one year's crowd out problem

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Table of contents (30 chapters)

  1. Front Matter

    Pages i-xxxiv
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  2. Introductory Chapters

    1. Front Matter

      Pages 1-1
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    2. Introduction

      • John J. Heim
      Pages 3-12

    3. Literature Review

      • John J. Heim
      Pages 13-40

    4. Methodology

      • John J. Heim
      Pages 41-78

  3. Theory of Crowd Out and Accommodative Monetary Policy

    1. Front Matter

      Pages 79-79
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    2. Theory of Crowd Out and Accommodative Monetary Policy

      • John J. Heim
      Pages 81-105

  4. The Effectiveness of Accommodating Monetary Policy Mechanics

    1. Front Matter

      Pages 107-107
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    2. The Role of Primary Dealers, Investment Banks and Foreign Banks in Federal Reserve Efforts to Change Bank Reserves and the Money Supply

      • John J. Heim
      Pages 109-134

  7. Comparing M1 and Total Loanable Finds Effects on Crowd Out

    1. Front Matter

      Pages 283-283
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    2. Does M1 More Accurately Define the Extent to Which Crowd Out Can Be Modified Than Total Loanable Funds?

      • John J. Heim
      Pages 285-318

  8. Exogenous Increases in Loanable Funds (Fr Security Purchases): Effects on Crowd Out

    1. Front Matter

      Pages 319-319
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Keywords

About this book

This book scientifically tests the assertion that accommodative monetary policy can eliminate the “crowd out” problem, allowing fiscal stimulus programs (such as tax cuts or increased government spending) to stimulate the economy as intended. It also tests to see if natural growth in th economy can cure the crowd out problem as well or better. The book is intended to be the largest scale scientific test ever performed on this topic. It includes about 800 separate statistical tests on the U.S. economy testing different parts or all of the period 1960 – 2010. These tests focus on whether accommodative monetary policy, which increases the pool of loanable resources, can offset the crowd out problem as well as natural growth in the economy. The book, employing the best scientific methods available to economists for this type of problem, concludes accommodate monetary policy could have, but until the quantitative easing program, Federal Reserve efforts to accommodate fiscal stimulusprograms were not large enough to offset more than 23% to 44% of any one year’s crowd out problem. That provides the science part of the answer as to why accommodative monetary policy didn’t accommodate: too little of it was tried. The book also tests whether other increases in loanable funds, occurring because of natural growth in the economy or changes in the savings rate can also offset crowd out.  It concludes they can, and that these changes tend to be several times as effective as accommodative monetary policy.  This book’s companion volume Why Fiscal Stimulus Programs Fail explores the policy implications of these results.

Reviews

The book is well laid-out and designed. The topic is very important and timely given the economic conditions that are currently present. Additionally, the analysis provides an important examination of what not to do during economic downturns and how to ensure that monetary policy will have the impact that is hoped for. The topic of the book is extremely important and the Federal Reserve should read the book themselves. I am confident that this book should be a key part of any macroeconomists’ library and should be read by policy makers. This book proposal does offer an important and original contribution to the field. The book offers an exhaustive analysis of the accommodative monetary policy issue, which, if covered at all, is largely just a theoretical issue in macroeconomic books. This proposal shows that Keynesian monetary policies did not fail; what failed was the Federal Reserve’s use of accommodative monetary policy which were not large enough to overpower the crowding outimpacts. The analysis provided in this book illustrates that if loanable funds are increased sufficiently and appropriately, Keynesian macroeconomic policies will work. The importance of this finding cannot be overstated. (John Polimeni, Albany College of Pharmacy, Albany, NY, USA)

Authors and Affiliations

  • Department of Economics, State University of New York, Albany, USA

    John J. Heim

About the author

John J. Heim is Visiting Professor at University of Albany-SUNY, and retired Clinical Professor of Economics at Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, both in New York, USA.  He has served in cabinet and subcabinet positions in NY State and Local Government.  He is also an inventor of renewable energy devices and holds patents in this area.

Bibliographic Information

  • Book Title: Why Fiscal Stimulus Programs Fail, Volume 2

  • Book Subtitle: Statistical Tests Comparing Monetary Policy to Growth Effects

  • Authors: John J. Heim

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-64727-8

  • Publisher: Palgrave Macmillan Cham

  • eBook Packages: Economics and Finance, Economics and Finance (R0)

  • Copyright Information: The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2021

  • Hardcover ISBN: 978-3-030-64726-1Published: 14 March 2021

  • Softcover ISBN: 978-3-030-64729-2Published: 15 March 2022

  • eBook ISBN: 978-3-030-64727-8Published: 13 March 2021

  • Edition Number: 1

  • Number of Pages: XXXIV, 611

  • Number of Illustrations: 37 b/w illustrations, 2 illustrations in colour

  • Topics: Macroeconomics/Monetary Economics//Financial Economics, Econometrics, Public Finance, Economic Policy

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