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Bending the Law of Unintended Consequences

A Test-Drive Method for Critical Decision-Making in Organizations

  • Book
  • © 2020

Overview

Authors:
  1. Richard M. Adler

    1. DecisionPath, Winchester, USA

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  • Offers an innovative method to improve critical decision-making in organizations
  • Features realistic example test drives of critical problems of broad interest to businesses
  • Features two instructional videos online
  • Includes supplementary material: sn.pub/extras

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Table of contents (15 chapters)

  1. Front Matter

    Pages i-xxi
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  2. Introduction

    • Richard M. Adler
    Pages 1-12

  3. Part I

    1. Front Matter

      Pages 13-13
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    2. Critical Decisions

      • Richard M. Adler
      Pages 15-29

    3. The Law of Unintended Consequences

      • Richard M. Adler
      Pages 31-40

    4. Psychology of Critical Decision-Making

      • Richard M. Adler
      Pages 41-62

    5. Rational Decision-Making

      • Richard M. Adler
      Pages 63-77

  4. Part II

    1. Front Matter

      Pages 79-80
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    2. Countering Cognitive Biases

      • Richard M. Adler
      Pages 81-94

    3. Business Intelligence, Analytics, and Their Discontents

      • Richard M. Adler
      Pages 95-105

    4. Modeling and Simulation

      • Richard M. Adler
      Pages 107-126

    5. Test Drive Your Critical Decisions

      • Richard M. Adler
      Pages 127-149

  5. Part III

    1. Front Matter

      Pages 151-152
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    2. Competitive Marketing Strategy

      • Richard M. Adler
      Pages 153-171

    3. Disruptive Growth

      • Richard M. Adler
      Pages 173-189

    4. Managing Enterprise Risk

      • Richard M. Adler
      Pages 191-213

    5. Enabling Organizational Change

      • Richard M. Adler
      Pages 215-237

  6. Part IV

    1. Front Matter

      Pages 239-240
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    2. Pragmatics

      • Richard M. Adler
      Pages 241-252

    3. Summary

      • Richard M. Adler
      Pages 253-259
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Keywords

About this book

This title provides managers, executives and other professionals with an innovative method for critical decision-making. The book explains the reasons for decision failures using the Law of Unintended Consequences. This account draws on the work of sociologist Robert K. Merton, psychologists Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman, and economist Herbert Simon to identify two primary causes⁠: cognitive biases and bounded rationality. It introduces an innovative method for “test driving” decisions that addresses both causes by combining scenario planning and “what-if” simulations. This method enables professionals to learn safely from virtual mistakes rather than real ones. It also provides four sample test drives of realistic critical decisions as well as two instructional videos to illustrate this new method. This book provides leaders and their support teams with important new tools for analyzing and refining complex decisions that are critical to organizational well-being and survival.

Authors and Affiliations

  • DecisionPath, Winchester, USA

    Richard M. Adler

About the author

Richard M. Adler is Founder and President of DecisionPath (USA), where he creates advanced decision support solutions for diverse problems including competitive marketing, counter-terrorism strategy, and enabling organizational change. He has more than three decades of experience building software tools and applications to automate and improve business operations and critical decision-making. Richard has published on topics including intelligent and distributed systems, simulation, homeland security, and knowledge management.


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