Forecasting Mortality in Developed Countries

1. Front Matter

   Pages i-xxvi

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2. Introduction

   1. A Review of Demographic Forecasting Models for Mortality

      • Ewa Tabeau

      Pages 1-32

   2. A Review of Epidemiological Approaches to Forecasting Mortality and Morbidity

      • Anneke Van Den Berg Jeths, Rudolf Hoogenveen, Guus De Hollander, Ewa Tabeau

      Pages 33-56

3. Theoretical Perspectives on Forecasting Mortality

   1. A Regression Model of Mortality, with Application to the Netherlands

      • Christopher Heathcote, Tim Higgins

      Pages 59-82

   2. Forecasting Mortality from Regression Models: The Case of the Netherlands

      • Christopher Heathcote, Tim Higgins

      Pages 83-103

   3. Gompertz in Context: The Gompertz and Related Distributions

      • Frans Willekens

      Pages 105-126

   4. Comparing Theoretical Age Patterns of Mortality Beyond the Age of 80

      • Lech Boleslawski, Ewa Tabeau

      Pages 127-155

4. From Theory to Practice

   1. Predicting Mortality from Period, Cohort or Cause-specific Trends: A Study of Four European Countries

      • Ewa Tabeau, Peter Ekamper, Corina Huisman, Alinda Bosch

      Pages 159-187

   2. Incorporating Risk Factor Epidemiology in Mortality Projections

      • Marianne Van Genugten, Rudolf Hoogenveen, Augustinus De Hollander

      Pages 189-204

   3. Projecting Mortality in Population Forecasts in the Netherlands

      • Wim Van Hoorn, Joop De Beer

      Pages 205-226

   4. The Latest Mortality Forecasts in the European Union

      • Harri Cruijsen, Harold Eding

      Pages 227-258

5. Issues for the Future: More Consistency and Transparency

   1. Mortality Models Incorporating Theoretical Concepts of Ageing

      • Anatoli Yashin

      Pages 261-280

   2. Towards an Integration of the Statistical, Demographic and Epidemiological Perspectives in Forecasting Mortality

      • Ewa Tabeau, Anneke Van Den Berg Jeths, Christopher Heathcote

      Pages 281-303

6. Back Matter

   Pages 304-304

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Information on future mortality trends is essential for population forecasts, public health policy, actuarial studies, and many other purposes. Realising the importance of such needs, this volume contains contributions to the theory and practice of forecasting mortality in the relatively favourable circumstances in developed countries of Western Europe.
In this context techniques from mathematical statistics and econometrics can provide useful descriptions of past mortality. The naive forecast obtained by extrapolating a fitted model may give as good a forecast as any but forecasting by extrapolation requires careful justification since it assumes the prolongation of historical conditions. On the other hand, whilst it is generally accepted that scientific and other advances will continue to impact on mortality, perhaps dramatically so, it is impossible to quantify more than the outline of future consequences with a strong degree of confidence. The decision to modify an extrapolation of a model fitted to historical data (or conversely choosing not to modify it) in order to obtain a forecast is therefore strongly influenced by subjective and judgmental elements, with the quality of the latter dependent on demographic, epidemiological and indeed perhaps more general considerations. The thread running through the book reflects therefore the necessity of integrating demographic, epidemiological, and statistical factors to obtain an improvement in the prediction of mortality.

• Ageing
• Public Health
• epidemiological
• epidemiology
• public health policy
• statistics

• Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI), The Hague, The Netherlands

  Ewa Tabeau

• National Institute of Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Bilthoven, The Netherlands

  Anneke Berg Jeths

• Australian National University, Canberra, Australia

  Christopher Heathcote

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