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European Studies of Population

Forecasting Mortality in Developed Countries

Insights from a Statistical, Demographic and Epidemiological Perspective

Editors: Tabeau, E., van den Berg Jeths, Anneke, Heathcote, Christopher (Eds.)

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Hardcover $219.99
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About this book

Information on future mortality trends is essential for population forecasts, public health policy, actuarial studies, and many other purposes. Realising the importance of such needs, this volume contains contributions to the theory and practice of forecasting mortality in the relatively favourable circumstances in developed countries of Western Europe.
In this context techniques from mathematical statistics and econometrics can provide useful descriptions of past mortality. The naive forecast obtained by extrapolating a fitted model may give as good a forecast as any but forecasting by extrapolation requires careful justification since it assumes the prolongation of historical conditions. On the other hand, whilst it is generally accepted that scientific and other advances will continue to impact on mortality, perhaps dramatically so, it is impossible to quantify more than the outline of future consequences with a strong degree of confidence. The decision to modify an extrapolation of a model fitted to historical data (or conversely choosing not to modify it) in order to obtain a forecast is therefore strongly influenced by subjective and judgmental elements, with the quality of the latter dependent on demographic, epidemiological and indeed perhaps more general considerations. The thread running through the book reflects therefore the necessity of integrating demographic, epidemiological, and statistical factors to obtain an improvement in the prediction of mortality.

Table of contents (12 chapters)

Table of contents (12 chapters)
  • A Review of Demographic Forecasting Models for Mortality

    Pages 1-32

    Tabeau, Ewa

  • A Review of Epidemiological Approaches to Forecasting Mortality and Morbidity

    Pages 33-56

    Berg Jeths, Anneke (et al.)

  • A Regression Model of Mortality, with Application to the Netherlands

    Pages 59-82

    Heathcote, Christopher (et al.)

  • Forecasting Mortality from Regression Models: The Case of the Netherlands

    Pages 83-103

    Heathcote, Christopher (et al.)

  • Gompertz in Context: The Gompertz and Related Distributions

    Pages 105-126

    Willekens, Frans

Buy this book

eBook $169.00
price for USA in USD (gross)
  • ISBN 978-0-306-47562-7
  • Digitally watermarked, DRM-free
  • Included format: PDF
  • ebooks can be used on all reading devices
  • Immediate eBook download after purchase
Hardcover $219.99
price for USA in USD
  • ISBN 978-0-7923-6833-5
  • Free shipping for individuals worldwide
  • Usually dispatched within 3 to 5 business days.
Softcover $219.99
price for USA in USD
  • ISBN 978-90-481-5660-3
  • Free shipping for individuals worldwide
  • Usually dispatched within 3 to 5 business days.
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Bibliographic Information

Bibliographic Information
Book Title
Forecasting Mortality in Developed Countries
Book Subtitle
Insights from a Statistical, Demographic and Epidemiological Perspective
Editors
  • E. Tabeau
  • Anneke van den Berg Jeths
  • Christopher Heathcote
Series Title
European Studies of Population
Series Volume
9
Copyright
2001
Publisher
Springer Netherlands
Copyright Holder
Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht
eBook ISBN
978-0-306-47562-7
DOI
10.1007/0-306-47562-6
Hardcover ISBN
978-0-7923-6833-5
Softcover ISBN
978-90-481-5660-3
Series ISSN
1381-3579
Edition Number
1
Number of Pages
XXVIII, 306
Topics