Progress In Decision, Utility And Risk Theory

1. Front Matter

   Pages i-xi

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2. General Theory

   1. Front Matter

      Pages 1-1

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   2. Cardinal Utility

      • W. Stanley Jevons

      Pages 1-42

   3. Game Solutions And The Normal Form

      • John C. Harsanyi

      Pages 43-66

   4. Overconfidence In Overconfidence

      • Regine S. May

      Pages 67-75

   5. Problem Formulation And Alternative Generation In The Decision Making Process

      • Herbert A. Simon

      Pages 77-83

3. Expected Utility V. Non-Expected Utility

   1. Front Matter

      Pages 85-85

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   2. On Non-Expected-Utility Preferences

      • D. Denneberg

      Pages 85-94

   3. Aspects of Regret Theory and Disappointment Theory As Alternatives to the Expected Utility Hypothesis

      • Ole Fugleberg

      Pages 95-103

   4. Expected Utility Theory - The “Confirmation” That Backfires

      • Ole HAGEN

      Pages 105-114

   5. The Expected Utility Model As An Aggregation Procedure

      • M. Li Calzi

      Pages 115-123

   6. Lowered Welfare Under The Expected Utility Procedure

      • Robin Elizabeth Pope*

      Pages 125-133

   7. Geometric Models Of Decision Making Under Uncertainty

      • Thomas Russell

      Pages 135-143

4. Experimental Approaches

   1. Front Matter

      Pages 145-145

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   2. Response-Modes And Inconsistencies In Preference Assessments

      • Philippe Delquié, Richard de Neufville

      Pages 145-153

   3. Consistent Choice And Sexes

      • Manfred J. Holler

      Pages 155-163

   4. Experimental Study Of The (m, Eu) Model

      • Samir Essid, Jean-Yves Jaffray, Tanios Said

      Pages 165-173

   5. Expected Utility Violations

      • B. Munier, M. Abdellaoui

      Pages 175-182

5. Decision And Risk Analysis

   1. Front Matter

      Pages 183-183

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   2. Fuzzy Sets In Risk Analysis

      • I. Bogardi, W.E. Kelly, H.P. Nachtnebel

      Pages 183-191

In this volume we present some of the papers delivered at FUR-IV - the Fourth International Conference on Founda­ tions and Applications of Utility, Risk and Decision Theory in Budapest, June 1988. The FUR Conferences have provided an appreciated forum every two years since 1982 within which scientists can report recent issues and prospective applications of decision theory, and exchange ideas about controversial questions of this field. Focal points of the presented papers are: expected utility versus alterna­ tive utility models, concepts of risk and uncertainty, developments of game theory, and investigations of real decision making behaviour under uncertainty and/or in risky situations. We hope that this sample of papers will appeal to a wide spectrum of readers who are interested in and fami­ liar with this interesting and exciting issues of decision theory. A wide range of theoretical and practical questions is considered in papers included in this volume, and many of them closely related to economics. In fact, there were two Nobel-Laureates in economics among the participants: I. Herbert A. Simon (1978) and Maurice Allais (1988), who won the prize just after the conference. His paper deals with problems of cardinal utility. After a concise overview of the history and theory of cardinal utility he gives an estimate of the invariant cardinal utility function for its whole domain of variation (i. e.

• calculus
• decision analysis
• decision making
• decision theory
• fuzzy sets
• management
• modeling
• rating
• risk analysis
• risk management
• risk theory
• utility theory

• ISIR, International Society for Inventory Research, Budapest, Hungary

  Attila Chikán

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