Accidents in the Year 2000

1. Front Matter

   Pages i-viii

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2. Summary

   • Scenario Committee on Accidents and Traumatology, R. M. Lapré

   Pages 1-11

3. Introduction

   • Scenario Committee on Accidents and Traumatology, R. M. Lapré

   Pages 13-17

4. Initial situation and background

   • Scenario Committee on Accidents and Traumatology, R. M. Lapré

   Pages 19-55

5. Possible future developments

   • Scenario Committee on Accidents and Traumatology, R. M. Lapré

   Pages 57-76

6. Future health scenarios and their consequences for the year 2000

   • Scenario Committee on Accidents and Traumatology, R. M. Lapré

   Pages 77-100

7. Intermezzo: accidents in the course of medical treatment, suicide and violence

   • Scenario Committee on Accidents and Traumatology, R. M. Lapré

   Pages 101-108

8. Final observations and conclusions

   • Scenario Committee on Accidents and Traumatology, R. M. Lapré

   Pages 109-122

9. Back Matter

   Pages 123-239

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In order to chart the way for long-term policies in the field of public health, the Dutch government needs to have the best possible insight into potential future trends and the problems to which these could give rise. It was with a view to compiling a number of long-range studies that the independent Steering Committee on Future Health Scenarios was set up in 1983. In 1985 the Steering Committee appointed a board of experts to conduct a long-range study of "Accidents and traumatology" (traumatology being that aspect of medicine concerned with the treatment of accident victims). In close consultation with this board, the Institute of Public Health and Social Medicine of the Erasmus University Rotterdam carried out a scenario study, the results of which are briefly summarized below. 0.1 Aims and approach The research had two objectives: To explore possible "autonomous" developments (in the sense of being independent of government intervention) in the field of accidents and the treatment of accident victims. To specify the effects of possible policy measures, in relation to both the prevention of accidents and improvements in the care for accident victims. The research was exploratory rather than predictive. It did not go beyond the year 2000, since it was felt that the pace of change in this field ruled out looking much further than ten to fifteen years ahead.

• computer
• development
• epidemiology
• health
• research
• suicide
• trauma
• traumatology
• treatment
• violence

• Institute of Public Health and Social Medicine, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Netherlands

  Accidents and Traumatology Research Team

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