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International Series in Operations Research & Management Science

Risk Analysis of Complex and Uncertain Systems

Authors: Cox Jr., Louis Anthony

  • Written by a leading authority in the field
  • Shows practitioners how Quantitative Risk Analysis can improve risk management decisions and policies
  • Demonstrates applications in complex and uncertain biological, engineering, and social systems
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Buy this book

eBook $189.00
price for USA in USD (gross)
  • ISBN 978-0-387-89014-2
  • Digitally watermarked, DRM-free
  • Included format: PDF, EPUB
  • ebooks can be used on all reading devices
  • Immediate eBook download after purchase
Hardcover $249.99
price for USA in USD
  • ISBN 978-0-387-89013-5
  • Free shipping for individuals worldwide
  • Usually dispatched within 3 to 5 business days.
Softcover $249.99
price for USA in USD
  • ISBN 978-1-4419-4703-1
  • Free shipping for individuals worldwide
  • Usually dispatched within 3 to 5 business days.
About this book

"Tony Cox is among the most active and creative architects and users of quantitative risk analysis. This book is full of interesting equations, conceptual designs and conundrums that characterize QRA and its applications to risk management. Informed by trenchant thinking and perceptive writing, this is a timely resource for the risk analysis community."  Michael R. Greenberg, Professor and Faculty Dean, Edward J. Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy, Rutgers University

 

"Tony Cox's impressive book applies both simple and cutting-edge risk models to a variety of fields.  It demonstrates creative but tractable ways to model real-world problems of great practical importance regarding biological, engineering, and social risks.  This book deserves to become influential and widely read by those seeking practical state-of-the-art methods for risk analysis."  Vicki Bier, Professor, Engineering Physics and Industrial Engineering & Director - Center for Human Performance and Risk Analysis, University of Wisconsin-Madison

 

"Risk analysis is as old as the first cave dweller mulling how to survive winter or woolly mammoths. It remains essential today in our world of accidents, disease, climate change and terrorism.  But some say that quantitative risk analysis is too complicated or time-consuming, and that qualitative intuition is a better way to make decisions.  In this ambitious and meticulous book, Tony Cox makes the case that quantitative risk analysis is actually the antidote to uncertainty and complexity, superior to other modes of thinking, both practical and effective.  Cox raises the bar on a vital debate."  Jonathan B. Wiener, Duke University, and President, Society for Risk Analysis (2008)

 

"This is an excellent, approachable read for any risk manager. Simple but devastating examples show how not to do risk analysis.  Insightful case studies apply quantitative risk assessment to natural, random threats, and to terrorist threats posed by an intelligent adversary.  This is a timely and much-needed resource for skeptical consumers of risk analysis advice and products, and for those who need to improve upon current, dangerously simplistic, guidance on threat assessment and risk management."  Gerald G. Brown, Distinguished Professor, Operations Research Department, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA

 

"This book provides a refreshing new perspective on quantitative risk assessment, and should be of interest to a wide range of practitioners. Drawing substantially on his own work, Tony Cox demonstrates that QRA can be applied even to challenging and complex systems."   Suresh Moolgavkar, Vice President and Principal Scientist, Exponent Scientific Consulting; Professor of Epidemiology, University of Washington

 

Reviews

From the reviews:

“The new results of this book include many real life applications especially in health management. … More applications to the specialists are given throughout the book. The book is written for practitioners but I think it is quite useful for anyone interested in risk analysis and assessment. … Concluding, this is one of the best books on quantitative risk assessment. I strongly recommended it to anyone interested in reducing risk in this highly volatile world.” (E. Ahmed, Zentralblatt MATH, Vol. 1168, 2009)

“The book is devoted to the development of quantitative risk assessment (QRA) for complex and uncertain biological, engineering, and social systems. … This book is written for practitioners using rational quantitative risk analysis in various areas. The methods and strategies included are good enough to help one make effective risk management decisions.” (Krzysztof Szajowski, Mathematical Reviews, Issue 2012 c)


Table of contents (16 chapters)

  • Quantitative Risk Assessment Goals and Challenges

    Cox, Louis Anthony, Jr

    Pages 3-33

  • Introduction to Engineering Risk Analysis

    Cox, Louis Anthony, Jr

    Pages 35-72

  • Introduction to Health Risk Analysis

    Cox, Louis Anthony, Jr

    Pages 73-97

  • Limitations of Risk Assessment Using Risk Matrices

    Cox, Louis Anthony, Jr

    Pages 101-124

  • Limitations of Quantitative Risk Assessment Using Aggregate Exposure and Risk Models

    Cox, Louis Anthony, Jr

    Pages 125-161

Buy this book

eBook $189.00
price for USA in USD (gross)
  • ISBN 978-0-387-89014-2
  • Digitally watermarked, DRM-free
  • Included format: PDF, EPUB
  • ebooks can be used on all reading devices
  • Immediate eBook download after purchase
Hardcover $249.99
price for USA in USD
  • ISBN 978-0-387-89013-5
  • Free shipping for individuals worldwide
  • Usually dispatched within 3 to 5 business days.
Softcover $249.99
price for USA in USD
  • ISBN 978-1-4419-4703-1
  • Free shipping for individuals worldwide
  • Usually dispatched within 3 to 5 business days.
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Bibliographic Information

Bibliographic Information
Book Title
Risk Analysis of Complex and Uncertain Systems
Authors
Series Title
International Series in Operations Research & Management Science
Series Volume
129
Copyright
2009
Publisher
Springer US
Copyright Holder
Springer-Verlag US
eBook ISBN
978-0-387-89014-2
DOI
10.1007/978-0-387-89014-2
Hardcover ISBN
978-0-387-89013-5
Softcover ISBN
978-1-4419-4703-1
Series ISSN
0884-8289
Edition Number
1
Number of Pages
XXVIII, 436
Topics