Chinaʼs Macroeconomic Outlook

1. Front Matter

   Pages i-xx

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2. China’s Economic Performance in the First Half of 2019

   • Center for Macroeconomic Research at Xiamen University

   Pages 1-19

3. Quarterly Forecast for 2019–2020

   • Center for Macroeconomic Research at Xiamen University

   Pages 21-33

4. Policy Simulation: Effects of China’s Tax Cuts Policy to Boost the Growth of Household Consumption

   • Center for Macroeconomic Research at Xiamen University

   Pages 35-50

5. Conclusions and Policy Suggestions

   • Center for Macroeconomic Research at Xiamen University

   Pages 51-56

6. Back Matter

   Pages 57-67

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This report is a partial result of the China’s Quarterly Macroeconomic Model (CQMM), a project developed and maintained by the Center for Macroeconomic Research (CMR) at Xiamen University. The CMR, one of the Key Research Institutes of Humanities and Social Sciences sponsored by the Ministry of Education of China, has been focusing on China’s economic forecast and macroeconomic policy analysis, and it started to develop the CQMM for purpose of short-term forecasting, policy analysis, and simulation in 2005.Based on the CQMM, the CMR and its partners hold press conferences to release forecasts for China’ major macroeconomic variables. Since July, 2006, twenty-six quarterly reports on China’s macroeconomic outlook have been presented and thirteen annual reports have been published. 


This 27th quarterly report has been presented at the Forum on China’s Macroeconomic Prospects and Press Conference of the CQMM at Xiamen University Malaysia on October 25, 2019. This conference was jointly held by Xiamen University and Economic Information Daily of Xinhua News Agency.

• Economic outlook
• Economic forecast
• The Chinese economy
• Policy simulation
• CQMM

• Center for Macroeconomics Research of Xiamen University, Xiamen, China

  Center for Macroeconomics Research of Xiamen University

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