System Dynamics

1. Front Matter

   Pages i-xiii

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2. Concepts, Methodology and Techniques

   1. Front Matter

      Pages 1-1

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   2. Introduction

      • Bilash Kanti Bala, Fatimah Mohamed Arshad, Kusairi Mohd Noh

      Pages 3-14

   3. Systems Thinking: System Dynamics

      • Bilash Kanti Bala, Fatimah Mohamed Arshad, Kusairi Mohd Noh

      Pages 15-35

   4. Causal Loop Diagrams

      • Bilash Kanti Bala, Fatimah Mohamed Arshad, Kusairi Mohd Noh

      Pages 37-51

   5. Stock and Flow Diagram

      • Bilash Kanti Bala, Fatimah Mohamed Arshad, Kusairi Mohd Noh

      Pages 53-118

   6. Parameter Estimation and Sensitivity Analysis

      • Bilash Kanti Bala, Fatimah Mohamed Arshad, Kusairi Mohd Noh

      Pages 119-132

   7. Tests for Confidence Building

      • Bilash Kanti Bala, Fatimah Mohamed Arshad, Kusairi Mohd Noh

      Pages 133-148

   8. Scenario Planning and Modelling

      • Bilash Kanti Bala, Fatimah Mohamed Arshad, Kusairi Mohd Noh

      Pages 149-162

3. Cases and Applications

   1. Front Matter

      Pages 163-163

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   2. Modelling of Boom and Bust of Cocoa Production Systems in Malaysia

      • Bilash Kanti Bala, Fatimah Mohamed Arshad, Kusairi Mohd Noh

      Pages 165-178

   3. Modelling of Hilsa Fish (Tenualosa ilisha) Population in Bangladesh

      • Bilash Kanti Bala, Fatimah Mohamed Arshad, Kusairi Mohd Noh

      Pages 179-198

   4. Modelling of Food Security in Malaysia

      • Bilash Kanti Bala, Fatimah Mohamed Arshad, Kusairi Mohd Noh

      Pages 199-216

   5. Modelling of Supply Chain of Rice Milling Systems in Bangladesh

      • Bilash Kanti Bala, Fatimah Mohamed Arshad, Kusairi Mohd Noh

      Pages 217-247

   6. Modelling of Solid Waste Management Systems of Dhaka City in Bangladesh

      • Bilash Kanti Bala, Fatimah Mohamed Arshad, Kusairi Mohd Noh

      Pages 249-274

4. Back Matter

   Pages 275-278

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This book covers the broad spectrum of system dynamics methodologies for the modelling and simulation of complex systems: systems thinking, causal diagrams, systems structure of stock and flow diagrams, parameter estimation and tests for confidence building in system dynamics models. It includes a comprehensive review of model validation and policy design and provides a practical presentation of system dynamics modelling. It also offers numerous worked-out examples and case studies in diverse fields using STELLA and VENSIM. The system dynamics methodologies presented here can be applied to nearly all areas of research and planning, and the simulations provided make the complicated issues more easily understandable. System Dynamics: Modelling and Simulation is an essential system dynamics and systems engineering textbook for undergraduate and graduate courses. It also offers an excellent reference guide for managersin industry and policy planners who wish to use modelling and simulation to manage complex systems more effectively, as well as researchers in the fields of modelling and simulation-based systems thinking.

• Agricultural and aquacultural systems
• Complex issues and problems
• Computer simulation
• Environmental and socio-economic systems
• Industrial processes
• Management strategies for sustainable development
• Modelling of complex systems
• Policy Planning and Management
• System Dynamics
• Systems Analysis
• Systems thinking

• University Putra Malaysia, Serdang, Selangor, Darul Ehsan, Malaysia

  Bilash Kanti Bala, Fatimah Mohamed Arshad, Kusairi Mohd Noh

Professor Bala has taught the courses on system dynamics and environmental systems for more than three decades to undergraduate and postgraduate students in agricultural engineering at Bangladesh Agricultural University and supervised more than a dozen of MS students and half dozen of PhD students who applied system dynamics in the fields of agriculture, aquaculture, energy and environment, climate change and socio-economic planning at the Institute of Agricultural and Food Policy Studies, Universiti Putra Malaysia and Bangladesh Agricultural University. Professor Bala contributed papers in system dynamics in the fields of agriculture, aquaculture, energy and environment, climate change and socio-economic planning and has published 197 papers in peer reviewed international journals. Professor Bala published seven books, of which two are in the areas of system dynamics. These two books in the areas of system dynamics are: (i) Principles of system Dynamics (Agrotech PublishingAcademy, Udaipur, India) and (ii) Energy and Environment: Modeling and Simulation (Nova Science Publishers, USA). Professor Bala has provided consultancy and conducted research projects funded by international and local sources.


Professor Fatimah has a vast research experience on agricultural marketing and policy issues in Malaysia. She has carried out research on the following areas: marketing, price analysis, food security, structure-conduct-performance of selected Malaysian agricultural crops as well as agricultural policy evaluation. She teaches agricultural marketing, research methodology both for undergraduate and post-graduate levels at the Faculty of Economics and Management, Universiti Putra Malaysia (UPM). She was the Director of the Institute of Agricultural and Food Policy Studies, UPM (2005-2014). She has led a team of researchers to develop an econometric model of forecasting and simulation model of the agriculture sector for the Economic PlanningUnit, Prime Minister Department, Malaysia. She is also involved in the development of a system dynamics model (T21 model) for the Malaysian economy under the collaboration of the Economic Planning Unit and Millennium Institute, Washington. She is prolific in publications. She has written a total of 20 books, 49 chapters, 34 research reports, 74 journal articles, more than five hundreds of papers in proceedings, and seminars/conferences. She has received research grants from various sources and these include both international and local sources.


Associate Professor Kusairi Moohd Noh is currently the Head, Bio-resource and Environmental Policy Laboratory, Institute of Agricultural and Food Policy Studies, Universiti Putra Malaysia. His specialisation is in the field of natural resource economics particularly in fisheries economics. He has a total of 40 years of research and consultancy experience in this field where he has received grants from both the international and local agencies.

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