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Economic Consequence Analysis of Disasters

The E-CAT Software Tool

  • Book
  • © 2017

Overview

Authors:
  1. Adam Rose

    1. CREATE, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, USA

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  2. Fynnwin Prager

    1. College of Business Administration and Public Policy, California State University, Dominguez Hills, Los Angeles, USA

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  3. Zhenhua Chen

    1. City and Regional Planning, The Ohio State University, Columbus, USA

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  4. Samrat Chatterjee

    1. Applied Statistics & Computational Modeling, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, USA

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  5. Dan Wei

    1. CREATE, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, USA

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  6. Nathaniel Heatwole

    1. Acumen, LLC, Burlingame, USA

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  7. Eric Warren

    1. CREATE, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, USA

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  • Provides comprehensive assessment of economic consequences of disasters
  • Studies measurement of resilience and behavioral responses to disasters
  • Contains computable general equilibrium analysis of direct and indirect impacts
  • Introduces reduced-form analysis of disasters
  • Presents measurement of uncertainty of input parameters and results

Part of the book series: Integrated Disaster Risk Management (IDRM)

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Table of contents (9 chapters)

  1. Front Matter

    Pages i-xlv
    Download chapter PDF

  2. Introduction

    • Adam Rose, Fynnwin Prager, Zhenhua Chen, Samrat Chatterjee, Dan Wei, Nathaniel Heatwole et al.
    Pages 1-8

  3. Enumeration of Categories of Economic Consequences

    • Adam Rose, Fynnwin Prager, Zhenhua Chen, Samrat Chatterjee, Dan Wei, Nathaniel Heatwole et al.
    Pages 9-17

  4. Threat Scenarios and Direct Impacts

    • Adam Rose, Fynnwin Prager, Zhenhua Chen, Samrat Chatterjee, Dan Wei, Nathaniel Heatwole et al.
    Pages 19-30

  5. Computable General Equilibrium Modeling and Its Application

    • Adam Rose, Fynnwin Prager, Zhenhua Chen, Samrat Chatterjee, Dan Wei, Nathaniel Heatwole et al.
    Pages 31-65

  6. User Interface Variables

    • Adam Rose, Fynnwin Prager, Zhenhua Chen, Samrat Chatterjee, Dan Wei, Nathaniel Heatwole et al.
    Pages 67-76

  7. Estimation of the Reduced Form Coefficients for the E-CAT User Interface

    • Adam Rose, Fynnwin Prager, Zhenhua Chen, Samrat Chatterjee, Dan Wei, Nathaniel Heatwole et al.
    Pages 77-86

  8. Uncertainty Analysis

    • Adam Rose, Fynnwin Prager, Zhenhua Chen, Samrat Chatterjee, Dan Wei, Nathaniel Heatwole et al.
    Pages 87-97

  9. Validation of Computable General Equilibrium Based Models

    • Adam Rose, Fynnwin Prager, Zhenhua Chen, Samrat Chatterjee, Dan Wei, Nathaniel Heatwole et al.
    Pages 99-108

  10. E-CAT User Interface Tool

    • Adam Rose, Fynnwin Prager, Zhenhua Chen, Samrat Chatterjee, Dan Wei, Nathaniel Heatwole et al.
    Pages 109-114

  11. Back Matter

    Pages 115-137
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Keywords

About this book

This study develops a methodology for rapidly obtaining approximate estimates of the economic consequences from numerous natural, man-made and technological threats. This software tool is intended for use by various decision makers and analysts to obtain estimates rapidly. It is programmed in Excel and Visual Basic for Applications (VBA) to facilitate its use. This tool is called E-CAT (Economic Consequence Analysis Tool) and accounts for the cumulative direct and indirect impacts (including resilience and behavioral factors that significantly affect base estimates) on the U.S. economy. E-CAT is intended to be a major step toward advancing the current state of economic consequence analysis (ECA) and also contributing to and developing interest in further research into complex but rapid turnaround approaches.


The essence of the methodology involves running numerous simulations in a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model for each threat, yielding synthetic data for the estimation of a single regression equation based on the identification of key explanatory variables (threat characteristics and background conditions). This transforms the results of a complex model, which is beyond the reach of most users, into a "reduced form" model that is readily comprehensible. Functionality has been built into E-CAT so that its users can switch various consequence categories on and off in order to create customized profiles of economic consequences of numerous risk events. E-CAT incorporates uncertainty on both the input and output side in the course of the analysis.

Authors and Affiliations

  • CREATE, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, USA

    Adam Rose, Dan Wei, Eric Warren

  • College of Business Administration and Public Policy, California State University, Dominguez Hills, Los Angeles, USA

    Fynnwin Prager

  • City and Regional Planning, The Ohio State University, Columbus, USA

    Zhenhua Chen

  • Applied Statistics & Computational Modeling, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, USA

    Samrat Chatterjee

  • Acumen, LLC, Burlingame, USA

    Nathaniel Heatwole

About the authors

Adam Rose: Price School of Public Policy and Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorism Events (CREATE), University of Southern California


Fynnwin Prager: College of Business Administration and Public Policy, California State University, Dominguez Hills


Zhenhua Chen: Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorism Events (CREATE), University of Southern California


Samrat Chatterjee: Applied Statistics and Computational Modeling, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory


Dan Wei: Price School of Public Policy and Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorism Events (CREATE), University of Southern California


Nathaniel Heatwole: Acumen, LLC


Eric Warren: Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorism Events (CREATE), University of Southern California


Bibliographic Information

  • Book Title: Economic Consequence Analysis of Disasters

  • Book Subtitle: The E-CAT Software Tool

  • Authors: Adam Rose, Fynnwin Prager, Zhenhua Chen, Samrat Chatterjee, Dan Wei, Nathaniel Heatwole, Eric Warren

  • Series Title: Integrated Disaster Risk Management

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-10-2567-9

  • Publisher: Springer Singapore

  • eBook Packages: Economics and Finance, Economics and Finance (R0)

  • Copyright Information: The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2017

  • Hardcover ISBN: 978-981-10-2566-2Published: 25 April 2017

  • Softcover ISBN: 978-981-10-9653-2Published: 09 May 2018

  • eBook ISBN: 978-981-10-2567-9Published: 13 April 2017

  • Series ISSN: 2509-7091

  • Series E-ISSN: 2509-7105

  • Edition Number: 1

  • Number of Pages: XLV, 137

  • Number of Illustrations: 14 b/w illustrations, 14 illustrations in colour

  • Topics: Environmental Economics, Risk Management, Natural Hazards

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