Coping with Uncertainty
Modeling and Policy Issues
Editors: Marti, K., Ermoliev, Y., Makowski, M., Pflug, G. (Eds.)
Free PreviewBuy this book
- About this book
-
Ongoing global changes bring fundamentally new scientific problems requiring new concepts and tools. A key issue concerns a vast variety of practically irreducible uncertainties, which challenge our traditional models and require new concepts and analytical tools. The uncertainty critically dominantes, e.g., the climate change debates. In short, the dilemma is concerned with enormous costs vs. massive uncertainties of potential extreme impacts. Traditional scientific approaches usually rely on real observations and experiments. Yet no sufficient observations exist for new problems, and "pure" experiments and learning by doing may be very expensive, dangerous, or simply impossible. In addition, available historical observations are contaminated by actions, policies. The complexity of new problems does not allow to achieve enough certainty by increasing the resolution of models or by bringing in more links. Hence, new tools for modeling and management of uncertainty are needed, as given in this book.
- Table of contents (18 chapters)
-
-
Facets of Robust Decisions
Pages 3-28
-
Stress Testing via Contamination
Pages 29-46
-
Structured Modeling for Coping with Uncertainty in Complex Problems
Pages 47-64
-
Using Monte Carlo Simulation to Treat Physical Uncertainties in Structural Reliability
Pages 67-83
-
Explicit Methods for the Computation of Structural Reliabilities in Stochastic Plastic Analysis
Pages 85-103
-
Table of contents (18 chapters)
Recommended for you
Bibliographic Information
- Bibliographic Information
-
- Book Title
- Coping with Uncertainty
- Book Subtitle
- Modeling and Policy Issues
- Editors
-
- Kurt Marti
- Yuri Ermoliev
- Marek Makowski
- Georg Pflug
- Series Title
- Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems
- Series Volume
- 581
- Copyright
- 2006
- Publisher
- Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg
- Copyright Holder
- Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg
- eBook ISBN
- 978-3-540-35262-4
- DOI
- 10.1007/3-540-35262-7
- Softcover ISBN
- 978-3-540-35258-7
- Series ISSN
- 0075-8442
- Edition Number
- 1
- Number of Pages
- XIII, 330
- Number of Illustrations
- 56 b/w illustrations
- Topics
