The Uncertainty Analysis of Model Results
A Practical Guide
Authors: Hofer, Eduard
Free Preview- Provides a step-by-step practical guide to the uncertainty analysis of computer modelsDiscusses the advantages and disadvantages of the suggested methodsPoints out the benefits of an uncertainty analysis for model robustness and the reliability of the resultsExplains the difference between aleatory and epistemic uncertaintyIncludes practical examples
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- About this book
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This book is a practical guide to the uncertainty analysis of computer model applications. Used in many areas, such as engineering, ecology and economics, computer models are subject to various uncertainties at the level of model formulations, parameter values and input data. Naturally, it would be advantageous to know the combined effect of these uncertainties on the model results as well as whether the state of knowledge should be improved in order to reduce the uncertainty of the results most effectively. The book supports decision-makers, model developers and users in their argumentation for an uncertainty analysis and assists them in the interpretation of the analysis results.
- About the authors
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Eduard Hofer holds a Master of Science diploma with distinction in mathematics from the Technical University of Munich (TUM), Germany. He developed a method for the numerical solution of initial value problems with large systems of stiff first-order ordinary differential equations. He also designed a non-commercial, PC-based software system for uncertainty analysis of results from computer models and conducted the uncertainty analysis of numerous applications of computationally demanding computer models. Hofer served on the external peer-review committee of a major US dose reconstruction study with the subtask in uncertainty and sensitivity analysis, and contributed to numerous international conferences. Furthermore, he received an award for his contributions in the field of probabilistic risk assessment.
- Table of contents (10 chapters)
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Introduction and Necessary Distinctions
Pages 1-13
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STEP 1: Search
Pages 15-19
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STEP 2: Quantify
Pages 21-148
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STEP 3: Propagate
Pages 149-177
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Step 4: Estimate Uncertainty
Pages 179-208
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Table of contents (10 chapters)
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Bibliographic Information
- Bibliographic Information
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- Book Title
- The Uncertainty Analysis of Model Results
- Book Subtitle
- A Practical Guide
- Authors
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- Eduard Hofer
- Copyright
- 2018
- Publisher
- Springer International Publishing
- Copyright Holder
- Springer International Publishing AG, part of Springer Nature
- eBook ISBN
- 978-3-319-76297-5
- DOI
- 10.1007/978-3-319-76297-5
- Hardcover ISBN
- 978-3-319-76296-8
- Softcover ISBN
- 978-3-030-09456-0
- Edition Number
- 1
- Number of Pages
- XV, 346
- Number of Illustrations
- 22 b/w illustrations, 107 illustrations in colour
- Topics
