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Time Predictions

Understanding and Avoiding Unrealism in Project Planning and Everyday Life

Authors: Halkjelsvik, Torleif, Jørgensen, Magne

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  • Learn why and when your time predictions will be overoptimistic and how to improve the accuracy of your time predictions
  • Read the first book summarizing what we know about judgment-based time predictions
  • Learn how easy it is to influence other people’s time predictions, and why not to do this
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  • ISBN 978-3-319-74953-2
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  • ISBN 978-3-319-74952-5
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About this book

This book is published open access under a CC BY 4.0 license.

Predicting the time needed to complete a project, task or daily activity can be difficult and people frequently underestimate how long an activity will take. This book sheds light on why and when this happens, what we should do to avoid it and how to give more realistic time predictions. It describes methods for predicting time usage in situations with high uncertainty, explains why two plus two is usually more than four in time prediction contexts, reports on research on time prediction biases, and summarizes the evidence in support of different time prediction methods and principles. Based on a comprehensive review of the research, it is the first book summarizing what we know about judgment-based time predictions.

Large parts of the book are directed toward people wishing to achieve better time predictions in their professional life, such as project managers, graphic designers, architects, engineers, film producers, consultants, software developers, or anyone else in need of realistic time usage predictions. It is also of benefit to those with a general interest in judgment and decision-making or those who want to improve their ability to predict and plan ahead in daily life.

About the authors

Torleif Halkjelsvik: Torleif Halkjelsvik works as a research professor (seniorforsker) at the Norwegian Institute of Public Health in Oslo. His research is in the areas of judgment and decision-making, attitudes and attitude change, motivation and emotion, and addictions.

Torleif Halkjelsvik has a background in social psychology and judgment and decision-making. He is interested in the determinants of people's behaviors and decisions in contexts ranging from project management to addictive behaviors.

Magne Jørgensen: Magne Jørgensen is a chief research scientist at Simula Research Laboratory and a professor of informatics at University of Oslo. His areas of specialization are project management, time and cost predictions, and processes for judgment and decision-making under uncertainty. He received in 2014 the ACM Sigsoft award for most influential paper last ten years for the initial paper on evidence-based software engineering. 

Magne Jørgensen has worked with time predictions as a practitioner  (project manager and effort estimation support) in industrial software development projects, as a researcher over more than fifteen years and as an advisor for software companies.

Table of contents (9 chapters)

Table of contents (9 chapters)
  • Introduction

    Pages 1-3

    Halkjelsvik, Torleif (et al.)

  • How We Predict Time Usage

    Pages 5-11

    Halkjelsvik, Torleif (et al.)

  • Predictions and the Uncertainty of the Future

    Pages 13-33

    Halkjelsvik, Torleif (et al.)

  • Overoptimistic Predictions

    Pages 35-54

    Halkjelsvik, Torleif (et al.)

  • Time Prediction Biases

    Pages 55-70

    Halkjelsvik, Torleif (et al.)

Buy this book

eBook  
  • ISBN 978-3-319-74953-2
  • This book is an open access book, you can download it for free on link.springer.com
Softcover 20,79 €
price for Spain (gross)
  • ISBN 978-3-319-74952-5
  • Free shipping for individuals worldwide
  • Usually dispatched within 3 to 5 business days.
  • The final prices may differ from the prices shown due to specifics of VAT rules
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Bibliographic Information

Bibliographic Information
Book Title
Time Predictions
Book Subtitle
Understanding and Avoiding Unrealism in Project Planning and Everyday Life
Authors
Series Title
Simula SpringerBriefs on Computing
Series Volume
5
Copyright
2018
Publisher
Springer International Publishing
Copyright Holder
The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s)
eBook ISBN
978-3-319-74953-2
DOI
10.1007/978-3-319-74953-2
Softcover ISBN
978-3-319-74952-5
Edition Number
1
Number of Pages
XII, 110
Number of Illustrations
1 b/w illustrations, 11 illustrations in colour
Topics