Exploring the Health State of a Population by Dynamic Modeling Methods

1. Front Matter

   Pages i-x

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2. Life Expectancy, Deterioration Function and Application to Halley Breslau Data

   • Christos H. Skiadas, Charilaos Skiadas

   Pages 1-19

3. A Quantitative Method for Estimating the Human Development Stages Based on the Health State Function Theory and the Resulting Deterioration Process

   • Christos H. Skiadas, Charilaos Skiadas

   Pages 21-42

4. Estimating the Healthy Life Expectancy from the Health State Function of a Population in Connection to the Life Expectancy at Birth

   • Christos H. Skiadas, Charilaos Skiadas

   Pages 43-65

5. The Health-Mortality Approach in Estimating the Healthy Life Years Lost Compared to the Global Burden of Disease Studies and Applications in World, USA and Japan

   • Christos H. Skiadas, Charilaos Skiadas

   Pages 67-124

6. The Health State Status of the US States for the Period 1989–1991 (Decennial Life Tables)

   • Christos H. Skiadas, Charilaos Skiadas

   Pages 125-139

7. Life Expectancy at Birth, Estimates and Forecasts in the Netherlands (Females)

   • Christos H. Skiadas, Charilaos Skiadas

   Pages 141-155

8. Remarks and Findings on “Evidence for a Limit to Human Life Span”

   • Christos H. Skiadas, Charilaos Skiadas

   Pages 157-174

9. Stages of Human Development: The Life-Span Approach and Related Applications and Comparisons

   • Christos H. Skiadas, Charilaos Skiadas

   Pages 175-204

10. Derivation and Validation of the Health State Function Form of a Population

    • Christos H. Skiadas, Charilaos Skiadas

    Pages 205-214

11. The Health Status of a Population: Health State and Survival Curves and HALE Estimates

    • Christos H. Skiadas, Charilaos Skiadas

    Pages 215-231

12. Theoretical Approach to Health State Modeling

    • Christos H. Skiadas, Charilaos Skiadas

    Pages 233-237

13. Back Matter

    Pages 239-244

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This book introduces and applies the stochastic modeling techniques and the first exit time theory in demography through describing the theory related to the health state of a population and the introduced health state function. The book provides the derivation and classification of the human development stages. The data fitting techniques and related programs are also presented. Many new and old terms are explored and quantitatively estimated, especially the health state or “vitality” of a population, the deterioration and related functions, as well as healthy life expectancy. The book provides the appropriate comparative applications and statistics as connecting tools accompanied by the existing literature, and as such it will be a valuable source to demographers, health scientists, statisticians, economists and sociologists.

• Life table data
• Stochastic modeling techniques
• Demography
• Aging and longevity
• Public health statistics
• Health state function
• Healthy life expectancy
• Stochastic modelling in Demography
• Human development stages
• Dynamical health modelling

• ManLab, Technical University of Crete, Chania, Crete, Greece

  Christos H. Skiadas

• Department of Mathematics/Computer Science, Hanover College, Hanover, USA

  Charilaos Skiadas

Christos H. Skiadas, PhD, was the founder and director of the Data Analysis and Forecasting Laboratory at the Technical University of Crete. He is chair of the Demographics Workshop series, the Applied Stochastic Models and Data Analysis Conference series and the Chaotic Modeling and Simulation Conference series. He has published more than 80 papers, three monographs, and 18 books, including probability, statistics, data analysis and forecasting. His research interests include innovation diffusion modeling and forecasting, life table data modeling, healthy life expectancy estimates, and deterministic, stochastic, and chaotic modeling.


Charilaos Skiadas, PhD, is an associate professor in mathematics and computer science at Hanover College. His research interests encompass a wide array of mathematical and computing topics, ranging from algebraic geometry to statistics and programming languages to data science and health state modeling.

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