Overview
Develops alternative methods for estimating the economic costs of civil conflicts
Extends the Lotka-Volterra models to realistically represent civil conflicts
Applies the framework to the case of the Greek Civil War (1946-1949) by using detailed conflict data
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Table of contents (11 chapters)
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Front Matter
Keywords
About this book
This book provides a quantitative framework for the analysis of conflict dynamics and for estimating the economic costs associated with civil wars. The author develops modified Lotka-Volterra equations to model conflict dynamics, to yield realistic representations of battle processes, and to allow us to assess prolonged conflict traps. The economic costs of civil wars are evaluated with the help of two alternative methods: Firstly, the author employs a production function to determine how the destruction of human and physical capital stocks undermines economic growth in the medium term. Secondly, he develops a synthetic control approach, where the cost is obtained as the divergence of actual economic activity from a hypothetical path in the absence of civil war. The difference between the two approaches gives an indication of the adverse externalities impinging upon the economy in the form of institutional destruction. By using detailed time-series regarding battle casualties, local socio-economic indicators, and capital stock destruction during the Greek Civil War (1946-1949), a full-scale application of the above framework is presented and discussed.
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Authors and Affiliations
About the author
Nicos Christodoulakis, is Professor of Economic Analysis at the Athens University of Economics and Business (AUEB) and Research Associate with the Hellenic Observatory at the London School of Economics. In 2002-2003, he was Minister of Finance in Greece and acting Chairman of the Eurogroup. He has written extensively on growth and economic policy - and on the Greek and the Eurozone crisis in particular. His last book "How Crises shaped Economic Ideas and Policies: Wiser after the events?” has been published with Springer.
Bibliographic Information
Book Title: An Economic Analysis of Conflicts
Book Subtitle: With an Application to the Greek Civil War 1946-1949
Authors: Nicos Christodoulakis
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-32261-2
Publisher: Springer Cham
eBook Packages: Economics and Finance, Economics and Finance (R0)
Copyright Information: Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2016
Hardcover ISBN: 978-3-319-32260-5Published: 09 August 2016
Softcover ISBN: 978-3-319-81236-6Published: 07 June 2018
eBook ISBN: 978-3-319-32261-2Published: 27 July 2016
Edition Number: 1
Number of Pages: XXI, 160
Number of Illustrations: 2 b/w illustrations, 23 illustrations in colour
Topics: Economic Theory/Quantitative Economics/Mathematical Methods, History, general, Dynamical Systems and Ergodic Theory, Economic Growth