Long-term Modeled Projections of the Energy Sector
An Incremental Approach to Narrowing Down the Uncertainty Range
Authors: Kononov, Yuri D.
Free Preview- Provides a theoretical ground for a novel approach that aims at solving the problem of improving the performance of long-term projections for the Energy Sector in an emerging world
- Shows in a visually engaging way the non-linear growth of uncertainty inherent in fuel and energy consumption projections published in the USA, OECD member countries, and Russia
- Discusses the evolution undergone over the last decades by long-term forecasting methods as applied to the Energy Sector development and price and demand dynamics
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- About this book
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This book covers available approaches to improving the performance and impact of long-term projections of the national energy sector development. In turn, it introduces an original multi-stage approach to narrowing down the uncertainty range of the input data and resulting projections. Its unique contribution is that it limits the scope for each of the projection timeframe segments step-by-step. This is done in the course of iterative calculations, which employ dedicated methods and other tools to elucidate and solve top-priority problems specific to each time segment. In closing, the book provides a detailed treatment of two essential research problems: 1) long-term forecasting for regional energy markets, and 2) the quantitative assessment of a) the barriers that are likely to hinder energy sector development and b) strategic-level energy security threats.
- About the authors
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Yuri D. Kononov – Doctor of Economics, Professor, Meritorious Scientist of the Russian Federation, Chief Researcher at the Melentiev Energy Systems Institute of the Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Irkutsk, Russia. His fields of research are modeling of energy and economy interactions as well as the methods aimed at enhancing the validity of long-term projections of the energy industry development. He has 254 research publications to his credit (including the authorship and co-authorship of 16 research monographs).
- Table of contents (5 chapters)
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The Effect of the Projection Time Frame on Projection Performance and Projection Performance Requirements
Pages 1-14
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Further Development of the Long-Term Projections Methodology for the Energy Sector
Pages 15-35
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Methods of Projecting Price and Demand for Energy Carriers
Pages 37-52
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Assessing and Factoring in Conditions and Barriers that Limit the Projection Range of Prospective Development of the Energy Sector
Pages 53-71
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Quantitative Assessment of Strategic Threats and Energy Security Indicators
Pages 73-94
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Table of contents (5 chapters)
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Bibliographic Information
- Bibliographic Information
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- Book Title
- Long-term Modeled Projections of the Energy Sector
- Book Subtitle
- An Incremental Approach to Narrowing Down the Uncertainty Range
- Authors
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- Yuri D. Kononov
- Translated by
- Steklova, S.V.
- Series Title
- Springer Geophysics
- Copyright
- 2020
- Publisher
- Springer International Publishing
- Copyright Holder
- Springer Nature Switzerland AG
- eBook ISBN
- 978-3-030-30533-8
- DOI
- 10.1007/978-3-030-30533-8
- Hardcover ISBN
- 978-3-030-30532-1
- Series ISSN
- 2364-9119
- Edition Number
- 1
- Number of Pages
- XVI, 98
- Topics
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