Most Honourable Remembrance

1. Front Matter

   Pages i-xxiii

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2. Introduction

   Pages 1-5

3. A Bayesian Genealogy

   Pages 6-36

4. Thomas Bayes: a life

   Pages 37-100

5. Divine Benevolence

   Pages 101-181

6. An Introduction to the Doctrine of Fluxions

   Pages 182-252

7. On a Semi-convergent Series

   Pages 253-257

8. The Essay on Chances

   Pages 258-335

9. The Supplement to the Essay

   Pages 336-369

10. Letters from John Ward

    Pages 370-383

11. Miscellaneous Items

    Pages 384-419

12. The Notebook

    Pages 420-498

13. Memento mori

    Pages 499-525

14. Back Matter

    Pages 526-668

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I ?nd it impossible to write a preface to this work, without discovering a little of the enthusiasm which I have contracted from an attention to it. Joseph Priestley. The History and Present State of Electricity. It is generally considered bad form in writing, unless on matters autob- graphic,tomakeunbridleduseoftheperpendicularpronoun. Thereaderof the present book, however, may well wonder why one would want to study 1 the life and works of Thomas Bayes, ‘this strangely neglected topic’ , and it is only by a reluctant use of the ?rst person singular on the part of the author that this legitimate question can be answered. It was in the late 1960s that my interest in various aspects of subjective probability was awakened by some of the papers of I. J. (‘Jack’) Good, and this was followed by the reading of works such as Harold Je?reys’s Theory of Probability. In many of these the (apparently simple) result known as Bayes’s Theorem played a pivotal rˆ ole, and it struck me that it might be interesting to ?nd out a bit more about Thomas Bayes himself. In trying to satisfy this curiosity in spasmodic periods over many years I discovered that little information seemed to be available. Writings by John D.

• Excel
• history of mathematics
• probability

From the reviews:

A.I. Dale

Most Honourable Remembrance

The Life & Work of Thomas Bayes

"Interesting and useful as all this will be for anyone interested in knowing more about Bayes, this is just part of the riches contained in this book . . . Beyond doubt this book is a work of the highest quality in terms of the scholarship it displays, and should be regarded as a must for every mathematical library."—MAA ONLINE

"Andrew Dale explains that his aim was to ‘flesh out the shadowy figure after whom one of the major branches of modern statistics is named’. The extensive and careful work which the author has put in to achieve his aim is evident everywhere in the book. ... he has done much more by his careful and deep analysis of Bayes work as a whole. Beyond doubt this book is a work of the highest quality in terms of the scholarship it displays … ." (Ramachandran Bharath, MathDL The MAA Mathematical Sciences Digital Library, January, 2004)

"Historians of mathematics will be interested in the author’s accounts of Bayes’s few published works. … we have here a book that seriously adds to the history of mathematics; at the same time provides a fascinating study of some aspects of 18th century society in Britain. All this is done with charm and humour: a book to be cherished." (D.V.Lindley, The Mathematical Gazette, Vol. 90 (517), 2006)

"This book takes the reader back to Bayes’s time and place, to understand and appreciate the contribution Thomas Bayes made to mathematics and theology … . The few primary sources that relate directly to Bayes are supplemented with extensive sources relating to that time and place. … The author is to be commended for a very considerable work of historical scholarship. … I recommend it to give insight into Thomas Bayes and his time." (W. M. (Bill) Bolstad, SIAM Review, Vol. 47 (2), 2005)

"The increasing importance ofBayesian methodology has naturally led to an increasing interest in the inventor. … All of the works are complemented by full discussion and notes … . The book has some delightful light touches … and yet maintains a high standard of scholarship throughout. Altogether it is a monumental achievement … ." (Peter M. Lee, Significance, December, 2004)

"Dale … offers this painstaking and meticulous study of the environment, life, and work of Thomas Bayes, the nonconformist Presbyterian minister whose posthumous 1763 ‘An Essay Towards Solving a Problem in the Doctrine of Changes’ profoundly influenced statistics. … A valuable and very scholarly reference that renders Bayes’s scientific opus more easily accessible." (S. J. Colley, CHOICE, February, 2004)

• Department of Mathematical Statistics, University of Natal, Durban, Natal, South Africa

  Andrew I. Dale

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