The 21st Century Singularity and Global Futures

1. Front Matter

   Pages i-xv

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2. The Twenty-First-Century Singularity in the Big History Perspective: An Overview

   • Alexander Panov, David J. LePoire, Andrey V. Korotayev

   Pages 1-18

3. The Twenty-First-Century Singularity in the Big History Perspective—A Re-analysis

   • Andrey V. Korotayev

   Pages 19-75

4. Exploring the Singularity Concept Within Big History

   • David J. LePoire

   Pages 77-97

5. Historical Mega-Trends

   1. Front Matter

      Pages 99-99

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   2. Forecasting the Growth of Complexity and Change—An Update

      • Theodore Modis

      Pages 101-104

   3. Hyperbolic Evolution from Biosphere to Technosphere

      • Alexey Fomin

      Pages 105-118

   4. Big History and Singularity as Metaphors, Hypotheses, and Predictions

      • Sergey Tsirel

      Pages 119-144

   5. Big History Trends in Information Processes

      • Ken Solis, David J. LePoire

      Pages 145-161

   6. Plurality: The End of Singularity?

      • Alessio Plebe, Pietro Perconti

      Pages 163-184

   7. Energy Flow Trends in Big History

      • David J. LePoire, Mathew Chandrankunnel

      Pages 185-200

   8. The Deductive Approach to Big History’s Singularity

      • Sergey Grinchenko, Yulia L. Shchapova

      Pages 201-210

6. Models

   1. Front Matter

      Pages 211-211

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   2. Near-Term Indications and Models of a Singularity

      • David J. LePoire, Tessaleno Devezas

      Pages 213-224

   3. Is Singularity a Scientific Concept or the Construct of Metaphysical Historicism? Implications for Big History

      • Graeme Donald Snooks

      Pages 225-263

7. Future Implications

   1. Front Matter

      Pages 265-265

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   2. Threshold 9: Big History as a Roadmap for the Future

      • Elise Bohan

      Pages 267-286

   3. Dynamics of Technological Growth Rate and the Forthcoming Singularity

      • Leonid Grinin, Anton Grinin, Andrey V. Korotayev

      Pages 287-344

   4. The Twenty-First Century’s “Mysterious Singularity” in the Light of the Big History

      • Akop Nazaretyan

      Pages 345-362

   5. Global Brain: Foundations of a Distributed Singularity

      • Cadell Last

      Pages 363-375

This book introduces a 'Big History' perspective to understand the acceleration of social, technological and economic trends towards a near-term singularity, marking a radical turning point in the evolution of our planet. It traces the emergence of accelerating innovation rates through global history and highlights major historical transformations throughout the evolution of life, humans, and civilization. The authors pursue an interdisciplinary approach, also drawing on concepts from physics and evolutionary biology, to offer potential models of the underlying mechanisms driving this acceleration, along with potential clues on how it might progress. 

The contributions gathered here are divided into five parts, the first of which studies historical mega-trends in relation to a variety of aspects including technology, population, energy, and information. The second part is dedicated to a variety of models that can help understand the potential mechanisms, and support extrapolation. In turn, the third part explores various potential future scenarios, along with the paths and decisions that are required. The fourth part presents philosophical perspectives on the potential deeper meaning and implications of the trend towards singularity, while the fifth and last part discusses the implications of the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence (SETI). Given its scope, the book will appeal to scholars from various disciplines interested in historical trends, technological change and evolutionary processes. 

• Big History trends towards near-term singularity
• Innovations in global history
• Historical transformations and the evolution of life
• Evolutionary biology
• World-systems
• Search for extraterrestrial intelligence
• SETI
• Complex systems

• Higher School of Economics, National Research University, Moscow, Russia

  Andrey V. Korotayev

• Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, USA

  David J. LePoire

Andrey V. Korotayev heads the Laboratory for the Monitoring of Sociopolitical Destabilization Risks at the National Research University Higher School of Economics, Moscow, Russia. He is also a Senior Research Professor at the Institute of Oriental Studies and Institute for African Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences. He is the author/co-author of over 300 scholarly publications, including “Great Divergence and Great Convergence. A Global Perspective” (Springer, 2015) and “Economic Cycles and Crises, and the Global Periphery” (Springer, 2016). He is also one of the coordinators of the Russian Academy of Sciences Presidium Project ‘Complex System Analysis and Mathematical Modeling of Global Dynamics.’ He received a ‘Best Economists of the Russian Academy of Sciences’ nomination in 2006, and was awarded the Gold Kondratieff Medal by the International N. D. Kondratieff Foundation in 2012.  

David J. LePoire holds a PhD in Computer Science from DePaul University, Chicago, USA, and a BS in Physics from CalTech.  He has worked in environmental and energy areas for many governmental agencies over the past 25 years. Topics include uncertainty techniques, pathway analysis, particle detection tools, and physics-based modeling.  He has also investigated historical trends in energy, science, and environmental transitions. His research interests include complex adaptive systems, logistical transitions, the role of energy and environment in history, and the application of new technologies to resolve current energy and environmental issues.

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