International Commodity Market Models and Policy Analysis

1. Front Matter

   Pages i-xi

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2. Modelling Methodologies

   1. Front Matter

      Pages 1-1

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   2. An Integrated Market Model of Exhaustible Resource Behaviour

      • Marian Radetzki, Walter Labys

      Pages 3-26

   3. Optimal and Competitive Storage Rules: the Gustafson Problem Revisited

      • Christopher L. Gilbert

      Pages 27-52

   4. The Impact of Price Stabilisation on Producers’ Revenue and Consumers’ Expenditure

      • N. Davutyan

      Pages 53-61

   5. Stability of Base Product Markets: A Game Theory Analysis

      • A. Richard

      Pages 63-83

3. Applications

   1. Front Matter

      Pages 85-85

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   2. A World Grains and Soybeans Model

      • Donald O. Mitchell

      Pages 87-110

   3. Simulation of Supply, Demand and Price Interactions in the Magnesium Market

      • F. Field, J. Bush, J. Clark

      Pages 113-142

   4. Demand For Gasoline: An Application of A New Selection Model Procedure

      • A. Aznar, P. Garcia Castrillo

      Pages 143-153

   5. Competitive Technologies, Equipment Vintages and the Demand for Energy

      • F. Carlevaro

      Pages 155-164

4. Stabilisation Policy

   1. Front Matter

      Pages 165-165

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   2. Asymmetry and Robustness in Stabilisation Policy for Imperfect Commodity Markets

      • Jati K. Sengupta

      Pages 167-184

   3. Commodity Market Stabilisation with Speculative Activity; An Example From the World Copper Market

      • A. J. Hughes Hallett

      Pages 185-204

5. Trade Aspects

   1. Front Matter

      Pages 205-205

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   2. Oil and the North-South Terms of Trade

      • A. Gonzalez-Romero, S. M. R. Kanbur

      Pages 207-219

   3. Modelling Commodity Prices in a World Macroeconomic Model

      • G. H. Holtham

      Pages 221-258

   4. The Econometrics of Commodities in International Economic Linkages

      • F. Gerard Adams

      Pages 259-273

o. Guvenen, University of Paris IX-Dauphine The aim of this publication is to present recent developments in international com­ modity market model building and policy analysis. This book is based mainly on the research presented at the XlIth International Conference organised by the Applied Econometric Association (AEA) which was held at the University of Zaragoza in Spain. This conference would not have been possible with­ out the cooperation of the Department of Econometrics of the University of Zaragoza and its Chairman A.A. Grasa. I would like to express my thanks to all contributors. I am grateful to J.H.P. Paelinck, J.P. Ancot, A.J. Hughes Hallett and H. Serbat for their constructive contributions and comments concerning the structure of the book. vii INTRODUCTION o. Guvenen The challenge of increasing complexity and global interdependence at the world level necessitates new modelling approaches and policy analysis at the macroeconomic level, and for commodities. The evaluation of economic modelling.follows the evolution of international economic phenomena. In that interdependent context there is a growing need for forecasting and simulation tools in the analysis of international primary com­ modity markets.

• Simulation
• calculus
• econometrics
• game theory
• modeling

• Université de Paris, France

  O. Guvenen

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