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Foundations of Utility and Risk Theory with Applications

  • Book
  • © 1983

Overview

Editors:
  1. Bernt P. Stigum

    1. University of Olso, Norway

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    You can also search for this editor in PubMed   Google Scholar

  2. Fred Wenstøp

    1. Norwegian School of Management, Bekkestua, Norway

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    You can also search for this editor in PubMed   Google Scholar

Part of the book series: Theory and Decision Library (TDLU, volume 37)

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Table of contents (25 chapters)

  1. Front Matter

    Pages i-ix
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  2. Introduction

    1. Front Matter

      Pages 1-1
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    2. Opening Address

      • Maurice Allais
      Pages 3-4

    3. Paradoxes and Their Solutions

      • Ole Hagen
      Pages 5-17

    4. Behavior under Uncertainty and Its Implications for Policy

      • Kenneth J. Arrow
      Pages 19-32

  3. Concepts of Probability

    1. Front Matter

      Pages 33-33
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    2. Frequency, Probability and Chance

      • Maurice Allais
      Pages 35-86

    3. Utility Analysis from the Point of View of Model Building

      • Herman Wold
      Pages 87-93

    4. On Second Order Probabilities and the Notion of Epistemic Risk

      • Nils-Eric Sahlin
      Pages 95-104

  4. Arguments Against Expected Utility

    1. Front Matter

      Pages 105-105
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    2. Expected Utility Theory does Not Apply to All Rational Men

      • J. M. Blatt
      Pages 107-116

    3. Sure-Thing Doubts

      • Edward F. McClennen
      Pages 117-136

    4. The Pre-Outcome Period and the Utility of Gambling

      • Robin Pope
      Pages 137-177

  5. Probability and Utility in Reality

    1. Front Matter

      Pages 179-179
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    2. Empirical Demonstration that Expected Utility Decision Analysis is Not Operational

      • Mark McCord, Richard de Neufville
      Pages 181-199

    3. Risk Attitude Hypotheses of Utility Theory

      • Roman Krzysztofowicz
      Pages 201-216

    4. Probabilistic Forecasts: Some results and speculations

      • George Wright
      Pages 217-232

    5. The Supra-Additivity of Subjective Probability

      • George Wright, Peter Whalley
      Pages 233-244

  6. Choice Withoud Expected Utility

    1. Front Matter

      Pages 245-245
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    2. A Decision Analysis Model When the Substitution Principle is Not Acceptable

      • Héctor A. Múnera, Richard de Neufville
      Pages 247-262
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Keywords

About this book

In this volume we present some o~ the papers that were delivered at FUR-82 - the First International Con~erence on Foundations o~ Utility and Risk Theory in Oslo, June 1982. The purpose o~ the con~erence was to provide a ~orum within which scientists could report on interesting applications o~ modern decision theory and exchange ideas about controversial issues in the ~oundations o~ the theory o~ choice under un­ certainty. With that purpose in mind we have selected a mixture of applied and theoretical papers that we hope will appeal to a wide spectrum o~ readers ~rom graduate students in social science departments and business schools to people involved in making hardheaded decisions in business and government. In an introductory article Ole Hagen gives an overview o~ various paradoxes in utility and risk theory and discusses these in the light o~ scientific methodology. He concludes the article by calling ~or joint efforts to provide decision makers with warkable theories. Kenneth Arrow takes up the same issue on a broad basis in his paper where he discusses the implications o~ behavior under uncertainty for policy. In the theoretical papers the reader will ~ind attempts at de~initive Statements of the meaning o~ old concepts and suggestions for the adoption o~ new concepts. For instance, Maurice Allais discusses four di~ferent interpretations o~ the axioms o~ probability and explains the need ~or an empirical characterization o~ the concept of chance.

Editors and Affiliations

  • University of Olso, Norway

    Bernt P. Stigum

  • Norwegian School of Management, Bekkestua, Norway

    Fred Wenstøp

Bibliographic Information

  • Book Title: Foundations of Utility and Risk Theory with Applications

  • Editors: Bernt P. Stigum, Fred Wenstøp

  • Series Title: Theory and Decision Library

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-017-1590-4

  • Publisher: Springer Dordrecht

  • eBook Packages: Springer Book Archive

  • Copyright Information: Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 1983

  • Hardcover ISBN: 978-90-277-1239-4Published: 30 September 1983

  • Softcover ISBN: 978-90-481-8364-7Published: 25 December 2010

  • eBook ISBN: 978-94-017-1590-4Published: 09 March 2013

  • Edition Number: 1

  • Number of Pages: IX, 494

  • Topics: Methodology of the Social Sciences

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