Utility, Probability, and Human Decision Making

1. Front Matter

   Pages I-VIII

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2. Multi-Attribute Utility

   1. Front Matter

      Pages 1-1

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   2. Editors’ Introduction

      • Dirk Wendt, Charles Vlek

      Pages 3-5

   3. Experimental Applications of Multi-Attribute Utility Models

      • Gregory W. Fischer

      Pages 7-46

   4. Multi-Attribute Utility Theory: Models and Assessment Procedures

      • Detlof Von Winterfeldt, Gregory W. Fischer

      Pages 47-85

   5. How We can Use the Notion of Semi-Orders to Build Outranking Relations in Multi-Criteria Decision Making

      • Eric Jacquet-Lagrèze

      Pages 87-112

   6. Multi-Criteria Decision Making: Comments on Jacquet-Lagrèze’s Paper

      • Detlof Von Winterfeldt

      Pages 113-117

   7. An Investigation of Subjective Preference Orderings for Multi-Attributed Alternatives

      • Patrick Humphreys, Alison Humphreys

      Pages 119-133

3. Subjective Probability

   1. Front Matter

      Pages 135-135

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   2. Editors’ Introduction

      • Dirk Wendt, Charles Vlek

      Pages 137-140

   3. Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases

      • Amos Tversky, Daniel Kahneman

      Pages 141-162

   4. A Structural Theory of Uncertain Knowledge

      • Gordon F. Pitz

      Pages 163-176

   5. Subjective Probability Forecasting: Some Real World Experiments

      • Allan H. Murphy, Robert L. Winkler

      Pages 177-198

   6. A Three-Step Procedure for Assigning Probabilities to Rare Events

      • Judith Selvidge

      Pages 199-216

4. Probability in Courtroom Decision Making

   1. Front Matter

      Pages 217-217

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   2. Editors’ Introduction

      • Dirk Wendt, Charles Vlek

      Pages 219-221

   3. Probabilities and the Law

      • D. V. Lindley

      Pages 223-232

   4. Probabilistic Analysis of Identification Evidence

      • William B. Fairley

      Pages 233-256

   5. Juror Decisions and the Determination of Guilt in Capital Punishment Cases: A Bayesian Perspective

      • Catherine R. Marshall, James A. Wise

      Pages 257-269

5. Some Alternative Views on Decision Behavior

   1. Front Matter

      Pages 271-271

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Human decision making involves problems which are being studied with increasing interest and sophistication. They range from controversial political decisions via individual consumer decisions to such simple tasks as signal discriminations. Although it would seem that decisions have to do with choices among available actions of any kind, there is general agreement that decision making research should pertain to choice prob­ lems which cannot be solved without a predecisional stage of finding choice alternatives, weighing evidence, and judging values. The ultimate objective of scientific research on decision making is two-fold: (a) to develop a theoretically sound technology for the optimal solution of decision problems, and (b) to formulate a descriptive theory of human decision making. The latter may, in tum, protect decision makers from being caught in the traps of their own limitations and biases. Recently, in decision making research the strong emphasis on well­ defined laboratory tasks is decreasing in favour of more realistic studies in various practical settings. This may well have been caused by a growing awareness of the fact that decision-behaviour is strongly determined by situational factors, which makes it necessary to look into processes of interaction between the decision maker and the relevant task environ­ ment. Almost inevitably there is a parallel shift of interest towards problems of utility measurement and the evaluation of consequences.

• assessment
• complexity
• experiment
• identification
• punishment
• research
• welfare

• University of Kiel, Germany

  Dirk Wendt

• University of Leyden, Netherlands

  Charles Vlek

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