Decision Theory and Choices: a Complexity Approach

1. Front Matter

   Pages i-xiv

   PDF

2. General Issues

   1. Front Matter

      Pages 1-1

      PDF

   2. Coherence, Complexity and Creativity: the Dynamics of Decision Making

      • Fortunato Tito Arecchi

      Pages 3-21

   3. Complexity Theoretic Bounded Rationality and Satisficing

      • Kumaraswamy Vela Velupillai

      Pages 23-36

   4. Optimisation and “Thoughtful Conjecturing” as Principles of Analytical Guidance in Social Decision Making

      • Sergio Bruno

      Pages 37-63

3. Agent Based Models

   1. Front Matter

      Pages 65-65

      PDF

   2. A New Agent-based Tool to Build Artificial Worlds

      • Pietro Terna

      Pages 67-81

   3. Exploration Modes and Its Impact on Industry Profitability

      • Lucio Biggiero

      Pages 83-115

   4. Financial Fragility and Interacting Units: an Exercise

      • Carl Chiarella, Simone Giansante, Serena Sordi, Alessandro Vercelli

      Pages 117-126

4. Techniques and Tools

   1. Front Matter

      Pages 127-127

      PDF

   2. Using Homogeneous Groupings in Portfolio Management

      • Jaime Gil-Aluja, Anna M. Gil-Lafuente, Jaime Gil-Lafuente

      Pages 129-145

   3. Elman Nets for Credit Risk Assessment

      • Giacomo di Tollo, Marianna Lyra

      Pages 147-167

5. Modeling from Physics

   1. Front Matter

      Pages 169-169

      PDF

   2. From Chemical Kinetics to Models of Acquisition of Information: On the Importance of the Rate of Acquisition of Information

      • Guglielmo Monaco

      Pages 171-182

   3. Thermodynamic-like Approach to Complexity of the Financial Market (in the Light of the Present Financial Crises)

      • Andrei Khrennikov

      Pages 183-203

   4. A Physicist’s Approach to Phase Controlling Chaotic Economic Models

      • Fortunato Tito Arecchi, Riccardo Meucci, Francesco Salvadori, Dario Acampora, Kais Al Naimee

      Pages 205-210

6. Related Issues

   1. Front Matter

      Pages 211-211

      PDF

   2. A Note on Complaints and Deprivation

      • Antonio Abatemarco

      Pages 213-219

   3. Predictability of SOC Systems. Technological Extreme Events

      • Giovanna Bimonte

      Pages 221-234

   4. Ontology Based Risk Management

      • Giancarlo Nota, Rossella Aiello, Maria Pia Di Gregorio

      Pages 235-251

In economics agents are assumed to choose on the basis of rational calculations aimed at the maximization of their pleasure or profit. Formally, agents are said to manifest transitive and consistent preferences in attempting to maximize their utility in the presence of several constraints. They operate according to the choice imperative: given a set of alternatives, choose the best. This imperative works well in a static and simplistic framework, but it may fail or vary when 'the best' is changing continuously. This approach has been questioned by a descriptive approach that springing from the complexity theory tries to give a scientific basis to the way in which individuals really choose, showing that those models of human nature is routinely falsified by experiments since people are neither selfish nor rational. Thus inductive rules of thumb are usually implemented in order to make decisions in the presence of incomplete and heterogeneous information sets.

• Alternative
• Complexity
• Economic agent
• Satisficing
• decision theory
• optimization

• University of Salerno Fisciano, Italy

  Marisa Faggini, Concetto Paolo Vinci

Policies and ethics