Uncertainty and Risk

1. Front Matter

   Pages I-VI

   PDF

2. Introduction

   1. Introduction

      Pages 1-5

3. Foundations

   1. Front Matter

      Pages 7-7

      PDF

   2. Conjectures, Refutations and Discoveries: Incorporating New Knowledge in Models of Belief and Choice under Uncertainty

      • Simon Grant, John Quiggin

      Pages 9-25

   3. When an Event Makes a Difference

      • Massimiliano Amarante, Fabio Maccheroni

      Pages 27-32

   4. Countable Additivity and the Foundations of Bayesian Statistics

      • John V. Howard

      Pages 33-39

   5. On the Quantification and Decomposition of Uncertainty

      • Emanuele Borgonovo, Lorenzo Peccati

      Pages 41-59

4. The Importance of Representational Tools in Understanding Behaviour Under Uncertainty and Risk

   1. Front Matter

      Pages 61-61

      PDF

   2. Preference for Diversification with Similarity Considerations

      • Ani Guerdjikova

      Pages 63-83

   3. Uncertainty Improves the Second-Best

      • Hans Haller, Shabnam Mousavi

      Pages 85-100

   4. Lorenz Meets Rating but Misses Valuation

      • Eva Camacho-Cuena, Christian Seidl

      Pages 101-123

   5. A Deeper Look at Hyperbolic Discounting

      • Barry Sopher, Arnav Sheth

      Pages 125-150

5. The Assessment of Several Alternative Decision Rules

   1. Front Matter

      Pages 151-151

      PDF

   2. “Take-the-Best” and Other Simple Strategies: Why and When They Work “Well” with Binary Cues

      • Robin M. Hogarth, Natalia Karelaia

      Pages 153-185

   3. On Generalized Secretary Problems

      • J. Neil Bearden, Ryan O. Murphy

      Pages 187-205

   4. Voting on Alternatives or on Criteria? The Meta-Decision on Group Decision Procedures

      • Niels P. Thomas

      Pages 207-219

6. Models of Risk Attitude Modelling and Methodological Issues

   1. Front Matter

      Pages 221-221

      PDF

   2. Probabilistic Risk Analysis Versus Decision Analysis: Similarities, Differences and Illustrations

      • Elisabeth Paté-Cornell

      Pages 223-242

   3. A Conjoint Measurement Based Rationale for Inducing Preferences

      • Heiko Großmann, Michael Brocke, Heinz Holling

      Pages 243-260

   4. Active Search for Probability Information and Recall Performance: Is Probability an Outstanding Element in the Mental Representation of Risky Decisions?

      • Odilo W. Huber

      Pages 261-274

We all feel that our world is fundamentally uncertain. But less unanimity emerges as to what we mean by "uncertainty" and how we ought to adjust. Businessmen tend to be "cautious" and engineers to pick up the "right" decision criteria among the many available in the literature, without having much justification about their respective behaviors. This book tries to sort out the different meanings of uncertainty and to discover their foundations. It shows that uncertainty can be represented using various tools and mental guidelines. Some decision criteria are then related to each case and assessed. Alternative ways to deal with risk - and risk attitude concepts - are then examined in the above perspective. Behavior under uncertainty emerges from this book as something to base more on inquiry and reflection than on mere intuition.

• Alternative
• Ambiguity
• Expected Utility
• Probability
• Risk
• Uncertainty
• Utility
• modeling

• Maison de la recherche de l’ESTP, GRID, Cachan, France

  Mohammed Abdellaoui, Bertrand Munier

• University of California, Irvine, USA

  R. Duncan Luce

• Department of Economics, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, USA

  Mark J. Machina

Policies and ethics