Complex Systems Approach to Economic Dynamics

1. Front Matter

   Pages 1-10

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2. Introduction

   Pages 1-7

3. Nonlinear Dynamics of Economic Cycles

   Pages 9-26

4. Type-I Intermittency in Nonlinear Economic Cycles

   Pages 27-37

5. Crisis-Induced Intermittency in Nonlinear Economic Cycles

   Pages 39-50

6. Attractor Merging Crisis in Nonlinear Economic Cycles

   Pages 51-60

7. Chaotic Transients in Nonlinear Economic Cycles

   Pages 61-76

8. Conclusion

   Pages 77-82

9. Back Matter

   Pages 83-101

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Economic Systems exhibit complex dynamics evidenced by large-amplitude and aperiodic fluctuations in economic variables, such as foreign exchange rates and stock market prices, indicating that these systems are driven far from the equilibrium. Characterization of the complex behavior of economic cycles, by identifying regular and irregular patterns and regime switching in economic time series, is the key for pattern recognition and forecasting of economic cycles. Statistical analysis of stock markets and foreign exchange markets has demonstrated the intermittent nature of economic time series. A nonlinear model of business cycles is able to simulate intermittency arising from order-chaos and chaos-chaos transitions. This monograph introduces new concepts of unstable periodic orbits and chaotic saddles which are unstable structures embedded in a chaotic attractor, responsible for economic intermittency.

• Business Cycles
• Chaos
• Economic Dynamics
• Nonlinear Dynamics
• Pattern Recognition
• Statistical Analysis
• complex system
• complex systems

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