Islamism, Arab Spring, and the Future of Democracy

1. Front Matter

   Pages i-xvii

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2. Introduction. Why Arab Spring Became Arab Winter

   • Leonid Grinin, Andrey Korotayev, Arno Tausch

   Pages 1-24

3. Islamism and the Arab Spring: A World System Perspective

   1. Front Matter

      Pages 25-25

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   2. The Middle East in the World System Context in Comparison with India and China: Some Backgrounds of Islamism in the MENA Region

      • Leonid Grinin, Andrey Korotayev

      Pages 27-57

   3. Islamism and Its Role in Modern Islamic Societies

      • Leonid Grinin, Andrey Korotayev

      Pages 59-124

   4. Perturbations in the Arab World During the Arab Spring: A General Analysis

      • Leonid Grinin, Andrey Korotayev

      Pages 125-155

   5. Arab Spring, Revolutions, and the Democratic Values

      • Leonid Grinin, Andrey Korotayev

      Pages 157-214

4. Islamism and Its Dimensions in the World Values Perspective

   1. Front Matter

      Pages 215-215

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   2. Background

      • Arno Tausch

      Pages 217-239

   3. Methods and Data for the Analysis

      • Arno Tausch

      Pages 241-251

   4. Radical Islamism and Islamist Terrorism

      • Arno Tausch

      Pages 253-269

   5. Between the Arab Spring and the Support for Terrorism

      • Arno Tausch

      Pages 271-287

   6. The Solitude of the West in the Fight against Terror

      • Arno Tausch

      Pages 289-309

   7. Islamism, Arab Spring and the Future of Democracy

      • Arno Tausch

      Pages 311-345

   8. General Conclusion to the Monograph. Mena Region and Global Transformations. Arab Spring and the Beginning of the World System Reconfiguration

      • Leonid Grinin, Andrey Korotayev, Arno Tausch

      Pages 347-364

This book provides an in-depth analysis of public opinion patterns among Muslims, particularly in the Arab world. On the basis of data from the World Values Survey, the Arab Barometer Project and the Arab Opinion Index, it compares the dynamics of Muslim opinion structures with global publics and arrives at social scientific predictions of value changes in the region. Using country factor scores from a variety of surveys, it also develops composite indices of support for democracy and a liberal society on a global level and in the Muslim world, and analyzes a multivariate model of opinion structures in the Arab world, based on over 40 variables from 12 countries in the Arab League and covering 67% of the total population of the Arab countries. While being optimistic about the general, long-term trend towards democracy and the resilience of Arab and Muslim civil society to Islamism, the book also highlights anti-Semitic trends in the region and discusses them in the larger context of xenophobia in traditional societies. In light of the current global confrontation with radical Islamism, this book provides vital material for policy planners, academics and think tanks alike.

• Arab World
• Muslim World
• Opinion surveys
• World Values Survey
• Arab Spring
• Arab Barometer Project
• Arab Opinion Index
• Islamism
• Antisemitism
• Xenophobia
• democracy

• National Research University Higher School of Economics and Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia

  Leonid Grinin, Andrey Korotayev

• University of Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria

  Arno Tausch

Leonid E. Grinin, Ph.D. is research professor and the director of the Volgograd Center for Social Research, as well as the deputy director of the Eurasian Center for Big History & System Forecasting and senior research professor at the Institute for Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences in Moscow. He is the Editor-in-Chief of the journal Age of Globalization (in Russian), as well as a co-editor of the international journals Social Evolution & History and the Journal of Globalization Studies. Dr. Grinin is the author of more than 360 scholarly publications in Russian and English, including 25 monographs. 


Andrey V. Korotayev, Ph.D. is head of the Laboratory for Destabilization Risk Monitoring of the National Research University Higher School of Economics, senior research professor of the Oriental Institute and Institute for African Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences, senior research professor of the International L
aboratory for Political Demography of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, as well as a professor at the Faculty of Global Studies of the Moscow State University. He has authored and co-authored over 300 scholarly publications. 

Arno Tausch, Ph.D. is adjunct professor of political science at Innsbruck University and associate professor of economics, Corvinus University, Budapest. He also served as an Austrian diplomat abroad and was counselor for labor and migration at the Austrian Embassy in Warsaw, 1992–1999. He authored or co-authored books and articles for major international publishers and journals, among them 18 books in English, two in French, eight books in German, and over eighty articles in peer-reviewed journals. 

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