Future Studies and Counterfactual Analysis

In this volume, the authors contribute to futures research by placing the counterfactual question in the future tense. They explore the possible outcomes of future, and consider how future decisions are turning points that may produce different global outcomes. This book focuses on a dozen or so intractable issues that span politics, religion, and technology, each addressed in individual chapters. Until now, most scenarios written by futurists have been built on cause and effect narratives or depended on numerical models derived from historical relationships. In contrast, many of the scenarios written for this book are point descriptions of future discontinuities, a form allows more thought-provoking presentations. Ultimately, this book demonstrates that counterfactual thinking and point scenarios of discontinuities are new, groundbreaking tools for futurists.

• Future Studies
• Forecasting
• Counterfactual Analysis
• Black Swans
• Nuclear Proliferation
• Bioterrorism
• Artificial Intelligence
• Competitive Intelligence
• Alternative Futures
• Comparative Analysis
• Critical Foresight
• Modeling/Simulation
• Artifacts of the Future

• Millennium Project, Old Lyme, USA

  Theodore J. Gordon

• Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Sofia, Bulgaria

  Mariana Todorova

Mr. Theodore J. Gordon, co-founder of the Millennium Project, the Institute for the Future, and the Futures Group, Inc., is a well- known futurist and senior author of this book. He has authored many books and professional papers, and in past years was Chief Engineer for the Apollo 3rd Stage lunar rocket.

Dr. Mariana Todorova, PhD is a researcher at Bulgarian Academy of Sciences and has been a Member of the Bulgarian Parliament. Todorova is a Chair of Millennium project Bulgarian node. She is building a new methodology of forecasting based on counterfactual analysis. She is an analyst, futurist, strategist, and trend tracker.

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