Expertise and Decision Support

1. Front Matter

   Pages i-xiv

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2. Introduction

   1. Introduction

      • George Wright, Fergus Bolger

      Pages 1-8

3. On the Nature of Expertise

   1. Front Matter

      Pages 9-9

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   2. The Psychology of Experts An Alternative View

      • James Shanteau

      Pages 11-23

   3. Improving Decisions and Judgments The Desirable versus the Feasible

      • Gideon Keren

      Pages 25-46

   4. Reliability and Validity in Expert Judgment

      • Fergus Bolger, George Wright

      Pages 47-76

   5. On the Competence and Incompetence of Experts

      • Peter Ayton

      Pages 77-105

   6. Epistemic Strategies Causal Thinking in Expert and Nonexpert Judgment

      • Lee Roy Beach

      Pages 107-127

   7. Sociological Perspectives on the Nature of Expertise

      • Andrew Sturdy, Innes Newman, Peter Nicholls

      Pages 129-151

4. Issues in the Interaction of Expertise and Decision Support Systems

   1. Front Matter

      Pages 153-153

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   2. Perspectives on Expertise in the Aggregation of Judgments

      • Gene Rowe

      Pages 155-180

   3. Decision Conferencing A Unique Approach to the Behavioral Aggregation of Expert Judgment

      • Patricia Reagan-Cirincione, John Rohrbaugh

      Pages 181-201

   4. Knowledge Engineering Issues for Decision Support

      • John Gammack

      Pages 203-226

   5. Human Expertise, Statistical Models, and Knowledge-Based Systems

      • Dominic A. Clark

      Pages 227-249

   6. Synthesis of Expert Judgment and Statistical Forecasting Models for Decision Support

      • Derek Bunn

      Pages 251-268

5. Back Matter

   Pages 269-273

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This volume brings together a range of contributors from Europe and North America. All contributions were especially commissioned with a view to e- cidating a major multidisciplinary topic that is of concern to both academics and practitioners. The focus of the book is on expert judgment and its interaction with decision support systems. In the first part, the nature of expertise is discussed and characteristics of expert judges are described. Issues concemed with the eval- tion of judgment in the psychological laboratory are assessed and contrasted with studies of expert judgment in ecologically valid contexts. In addition, issues concerned with eliciting and validating expert knowledge are discussed. Dem- strations of good judgmental performance are linked to situational factors such as feedback cycles, and measurement of coherence and reliability in expert ju- ment is introduced as a baseline determinant of good judgmental performance. Issues concerned with the representation of elicited expert knowledge in kno- edge-based systems are evaluated and methods are described that have been shown to produce improvements in judgmental performance. Behavioral and mathematical ways of combining judgments from multiple experts are compared and contrasted. Finally, the issues developed in the preceding contributions are focused on current controversies in decision support. Expert judgment is utilized as a major input into decision analysis, forecasting with statistical models, and expert s- tems.

• Action
• interaction
• nature

• University of Strathclyde Glasgow, Scotland

  George Wright

• University College London London, England

  Fergus Bolger

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