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Acting under Uncertainty

Multidisciplinary Conceptions

  • Book
  • © 1990

Overview

Authors:
  1. George M. Furstenberg

    1. Indiana University, Bloomington, USA

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Part of the book series: Theory and Decision Library A: (TDLA, volume 13)

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Table of contents (18 chapters)

  1. Front Matter

    Pages i-xvii
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  2. The Evolution of Scientific Conceptions of Uncertainty and Their Social Underpinnings

    1. Front Matter

      Pages 1-1
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    2. Coping with Uncertainty in Natural Science: 1200–1700

      • A. George Molland
      Pages 3-18

    3. Political, Moral, and Economic Decisions and the Origins of the Mathematical Theory of Probability: The Case of Jacob Bernoulli’s The Art of Conjecturing

      • Edith Sylla
      Pages 19-44

    4. The Quantification of Uncertainty after 1700: Statistics Socially Constructed?

      • Theodore M. Porter
      Pages 45-75

    5. Uncertainty and the Conditioning of Beliefs

      • Henry E. Kyburg Jr.
      Pages 77-94

    6. The Unity of Probability

      • Glenn Shafer
      Pages 95-126

    7. Necessity, Chance, and Freedom

      • Gernot M. R. Winkler
      Pages 127-158

  3. Risk Analysis and Social Responsibility

    1. Front Matter

      Pages 159-159
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    2. Risk in Cultural Perspective

      • Steve Rayner
      Pages 161-179

    3. Statistical Hypothesis Tests and Statistical Power in Pure and Applied Science

      • David F. Parkhurst
      Pages 181-201

    4. Uncertainty in Environmental Risk Assessment

      • Glenn W. Suter II
      Pages 203-230

    5. Uncertainty in Morals and Politics

      • Hector-Neri Castañeda
      Pages 231-264

  4. Learning and Acting under Uncertainty

    1. Front Matter

      Pages 265-265
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    2. Re-Modeling Risk Aversion: A Comparison of Bernoullian and Rank Dependent Value Approaches

      • Lola L. Lopes
      Pages 267-299

    3. Neither Gullible Nor Unteachable Be: Signal Extraction and the Optimal Speed of Learning from Uncertain News

      • George M. von Furstenberg
      Pages 301-324

    4. Rethinking Rational Expectations

      • James Bullard
      Pages 325-354

    5. Multiattribute Decision Models: Task Order and Group Effects

      • N. John Castellan Jr., Teresa A. Sawyer
      Pages 355-374

  5. Coping with Extreme Forms of Uncertainty

    1. Front Matter

      Pages 375-375
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    2. Measuring Vague Uncertainties and Understanding Their Use in Decision Making

      • Thomas S. Wallsten
      Pages 377-398
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Keywords

About this book

Uncertainty could be associated with wisdom, enterprise, and discovery. In ordinary speech, however, it has mostly negative connotations. There is "fear of the unknown" and "ignorance is bliss;" there are maxims to the effect that "what you don't know doesn't hurt you" (or: "bother you") in several languages. This volume suggests that we need be bothered by the excessive confidence with which scientists, particularly social scientists, present some of their conclusions and overstate their range of application. Otherwise many of the questions that should be raised about all the major uncertainties attending a particular issue routinely may continue to be thwarted or suppressed. Down playing uncertainty does not lead to more responsible or surer action, it sidetracks research agendas, and leaves the decision makers exposed to nasty surprise. This volume demonstrates that recognizing the many forms of uncertainty that enter into the development of any particular subject matter is a precondition for more responsible choice and deeper knowledge. Our purpose is to contribute to a broader appreciation of uncertainty than regularly accorded in any of the numerous disciplines represented here. The seventeenth-century French philosopher Descartes, quoted in this volume, wrote that "whoever is searching after truth must, once in his life, doubt all things; insofar as this is possible. " White areas left on maps of the world in past centuries were a much more productive challenge than marking the end of the known world with the pillars of Hercules.

Authors and Affiliations

  • Indiana University, Bloomington, USA

    George M. Furstenberg

Bibliographic Information

  • Book Title: Acting under Uncertainty

  • Book Subtitle: Multidisciplinary Conceptions

  • Authors: George M. Furstenberg

  • Series Title: Theory and Decision Library A:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-015-7873-8

  • Publisher: Springer Dordrecht

  • eBook Packages: Springer Book Archive

  • Copyright Information: Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 1990

  • Hardcover ISBN: 978-0-7923-9063-3Published: 28 February 1990

  • Softcover ISBN: 978-90-481-5785-3Published: 06 December 2010

  • eBook ISBN: 978-94-015-7873-8Published: 09 March 2013

  • Series ISSN: 0921-3384

  • Series E-ISSN: 2352-2119

  • Edition Number: 1

  • Number of Pages: XVIII, 486

  • Topics: Microeconomics, Operations Research/Decision Theory, Environmental Economics

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