The Concept of Probability in Psychological Experiments

1. Front Matter

   Pages I-XI

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2. The Value of Studying Subjective Evaluations of Probability

   • Bruno de Finetti

   Pages 1-14

3. The True Subjective Probability Problem

   • Bruno de Finetti

   Pages 15-23

4. Subjective Probability: A Judgment of Representativeness

   • Daniel Kahneman, Amos Tversky

   Pages 25-48

5. The Psychological Concept of Subjective Probability: A Measurement-Theoretic View

   • Thomas S. Wallsten

   Pages 49-72

6. Are Subjective Probabilities Probabilities?

   • Gerard de Zeeuw, Willem A. Wagenaar

   Pages 73-101

7. On the Generalizability of Experimental Results

   • Robert L. Winkler, Allan H. Murphy

   Pages 103-126

8. Statistical Analysis: Theory Versus Practice

   • Robert L. Winkler

   Pages 127-140

9. Back Matter

   Pages 141-153

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1. BACKGROUND The last twenty-five years have seen a large amount of psychological research in the area of behavioral decision theory. It followed the major breakthrough of decision theory that came with von Neumann and Morgenstern's Theory of Games and Economic Behavior in 1944. The key concepts are probability as a measure of uncertainty and utility as a measure of value and risk. The theory prescribes, given some behavioral axioms, that alternatives should be ranked in accordance with their expected utilities. Psychologists became interested in studying how people's decision behavior agreed with what was prescribed by the theory. Three broad areas for research developed, i. e. , research relating to each of the two concepts of probability and utility, and research relating to the interaction of the two in decision stituations. The papers in this book have been selected to illustrate various aspects of how the concept of probability has been used in psychological ex­ perimentation. The early experiments were generated, as mentioned above, by an interest among psychologists to see how people evaluate uncertainty and quantify it in probabilistic terms. Many of these experiments set out to evaluate subjects' estimates of relative frequencies; these were situations where one had access to 'objective' answers. In the 1960's psychologists changed the focus of their studies to how people revise probabilistic judgments when they receive new information. In recent years there has been a growing interest in the cognitive processes by which people express their judgment in probabilistic terms.

• Action
• Cognitive Process
• Cognitive Processes
• Psychological Experiment
• behavior
• decision theory
• evaluation
• experiment
• information
• interaction
• research

• Stanford Research Institute, USA

  Carl-Axel S. Staël Von Holstein

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