Forecasting in the Social and Natural Sciences

1. Front Matter

   Pages i-5

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2. Forecasting in the Social and Natural Sciences: An Overview and Analysis of Isomorphisms

   1. Forecasting in the Social and Natural Sciences: An Overview and Analysis of Isomorphisms

      • Kenneth C. Land, Stephen H. Schneider

      Pages 7-31

3. Forecasting Contexts

   1. Front Matter

      Pages 33-33

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   2. The Social Forecasting Industry

      • Herbert L. Smith

      Pages 35-60

   3. Forecasts in Urban Transportation Planning: Uses, Methods, and Dilemmas

      • Martin Wachs

      Pages 61-80

   4. Forecasting Errors: The Importance of the Decision-Making Context

      • Robin L. Dennis

      Pages 81-96

   5. The Delphi Technique and Judgmental Forecasting

      • Thomas R. Stewart

      Pages 97-113

4. Current Developments in Techniques and Models

   1. Front Matter

      Pages 115-115

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   2. Econometric Forecasting: A Brief Survey of Current and Future Techniques

      • C. W. J. Granger, R. F. Engle

      Pages 117-139

   3. A Survey of Census Bureau Population Projection Methods

      • John F. Long, David Byron Mcmillen

      Pages 141-177

   4. Forecasting Health Status Changes in an Aging U.S. Population: Assessment of the Current Status and Some Proposals

      • Kenneth G. Manton

      Pages 179-210

   5. Recent Developments in Technological Forecasting

      • Joseph P. Martino

      Pages 211-235

5. Predictability, Forecast Errors, and Model Indetification and Linkage

   1. Front Matter

      Pages 237-237

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   2. The Predictability of Weather and Climate

      • Richard C. J. Somerville

      Pages 239-246

   3. Errors in Forecasting Social Phenomena

      • Richard A. Berk, Thomas F. Cooley

      Pages 247-265

   4. Forecasting the Impact of Climate on Food Systems: Model Testing and Model Linkage

      • Diana M. Liverman

      Pages 267-285

   5. Modeling Economic-Demographic Linkages: A Study of National and Regional Models

      • Dennis A. Ahlburg

      Pages 287-336

   6. Scale Relationships in the Interactions of Climate, Ecosystems, and Societies

      • William C. Clark

      Pages 337-378

Social and natural scientists often are called upon to produce, or participate, in the pro­ duction of forecasts. This volume assembles essays that (a) describe the organizational and political context of applied forecasting, (b) review the state-of-the-art for many fore­ casting models and methods, and (c) discuss issues of predictability, the implications of forecaSt errors, and model construction, linkage and verification. The essays should be of particular interest to social and natural scientists concerned with forecasting large-scale systems. This project had its origins in discussions of social forecasts and forecasting method­ ologies initiated a few years ago by several social and natural science members of the Social Science Research Council's Committee on Social Indicators. It became appar­ ent in these discussions that certain similar problems were confronted in forecasting large-scale systems-be they social or natural. In response, the Committee hypothesized that much could be learned through more extended and systematic interchanges among social and natural scientists focusing on the formal methodologies applied in forecasting. To put this conjecture to the test, the Committee sponsored a conference at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado, on June 10-13, 1984, on forecasting in the social and natural sciences. The conference was co-chaired by Committee members Kenneth C. Land and Stephen H. Schneider representing, respectively, the social and natural science mem­ bership of the Committee. Support for the conference was provided by a grant to the Council from the Division of Social and Economic Science of the National Science Foundation.

• Scale
• Weather
• climate
• ecosystem

• Department of Sociology, Duke University, Durham, USA

  Kenneth C. Land

• N.C.A.R., Boulder, USA

  Stephen H. Schneider

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