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A Practitioner's Guide to State and Local Population Projections

  • Book
  • © 2013

Overview

Authors:
  1. Stanley K. Smith

    1. Bureau of Economic & Business Research, University of Florida, Gainesville, USA

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    You can also search for this author in PubMed   Google Scholar

  2. Jeff Tayman

    1. Economics Department, University of California-San Diego, San Diego, USA

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    You can also search for this author in PubMed   Google Scholar

  3. David A. Swanson

    1. Department of Sociology, University of California-Riverside, Riverside, USA

    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed   Google Scholar

  • Covers both the methodology and analysis of population projections
  • Includes projections of population-related variables (e.g., school enrollment)
  • Focuses on problems unique to small areas

Part of the book series: The Springer Series on Demographic Methods and Population Analysis (PSDE, volume 37)

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Table of contents (14 chapters)

  1. Front Matter

    Pages i-xv
    Download chapter PDF

  2. Rationale, Terminology, Scope

    • Stanley K. Smith, Jeff Tayman, David A. Swanson
    Pages 1-18

  3. Fundamentals of Population Analysis

    • Stanley K. Smith, Jeff Tayman, David A. Swanson
    Pages 19-43

  4. Overview of the Cohort-Component Method

    • Stanley K. Smith, Jeff Tayman, David A. Swanson
    Pages 45-50

  5. Mortality

    • Stanley K. Smith, Jeff Tayman, David A. Swanson
    Pages 51-76

  6. Fertility

    • Stanley K. Smith, Jeff Tayman, David A. Swanson
    Pages 77-101

  7. Migration

    • Stanley K. Smith, Jeff Tayman, David A. Swanson
    Pages 103-153

  8. Implementing the Cohort-Component Method

    • Stanley K. Smith, Jeff Tayman, David A. Swanson
    Pages 155-183

  9. Extrapolation Methods

    • Stanley K. Smith, Jeff Tayman, David A. Swanson
    Pages 185-213

  10. Structural and Microsimulation Models

    • Stanley K. Smith, Jeff Tayman, David A. Swanson
    Pages 215-249

  11. Special Adjustments

    • Stanley K. Smith, Jeff Tayman, David A. Swanson
    Pages 251-285

  12. Related Projections

    • Stanley K. Smith, Jeff Tayman, David A. Swanson
    Pages 287-299

  13. Evaluating Projections

    • Stanley K. Smith, Jeff Tayman, David A. Swanson
    Pages 301-322

  14. Forecast Accuracy and Bias

    • Stanley K. Smith, Jeff Tayman, David A. Swanson
    Pages 323-371

  15. A Practical Guide to Small-Area Projections

    • Stanley K. Smith, Jeff Tayman, David A. Swanson
    Pages 373-391

  16. Back Matter

    Pages 393-411
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Keywords

About this book

This book focuses on the methodology and analysis of state and local population projections. It describes the most commonly used data sources and application techniques for four types of projection methods: cohort-component, trend extrapolation, structural models, and microsimulation. It covers the components of population growth, sources of data, the formation of assumptions, the development of evaluation criteria, and the determinants of forecast accuracy. It considers the strengths and weaknesses of various projection methods and pays special attention to the unique problems that characterize small-area projections.    The authors provide practical guidance to demographers, planners, market analysts, and others called on to construct state and local population projections. They use many examples and illustrations and present suggestions for dealing with special populations, unique circumstances, and inadequate or unreliable data. They describe techniques for controlling one set of projections to another, for interpolating between time points, for sub-dividing age groups, and for constructing projections of population-related variables (e.g., school enrollment, households). They discuss the role of judgment and the importance of the political context in which projections are made. They emphasize the “utility” of projections, or their usefulness for decision making in a world of competing demands and limited resources.   This comprehensive book will provide readers with an understanding not only of the mechanics of the most commonly used population projection methods, but also of the many complex issues affecting their construction, interpretation, evaluation, and use.​

Reviews

“In fourteen chapters it provides the reader with the necessary tools for creating numerous population projection methods. … both graduate and upper-level undergraduate students could use this book as the sole textbook for a course, or as a supplement focusing on select chapters. Similarly, those who need a refresher on specific projection fundamentals will find this book full of helpful information. … Reading this book is an eye-opening journey into the complex world of population projections/forecasts.” (Alison Yacyshyn, Canadian Studies in population, Vol. 42 (3-4), 2015)

Authors and Affiliations

  • Bureau of Economic & Business Research, University of Florida, Gainesville, USA

    Stanley K. Smith

  • Economics Department, University of California-San Diego, San Diego, USA

    Jeff Tayman

  • Department of Sociology, University of California-Riverside, Riverside, USA

    David A. Swanson

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