The Future of Logistics

1. Front Matter

   Pages I-XIX

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2. Introduction

   Pages 1-7

3. Theoretical Foundations of Futures Research

   Pages 8-20

4. The Delphi Technique for Futures Research

   Pages 21-68

5. Fundamentals of Scenario Planning

   Pages 69-87

6. Scenario Planning in Strategic Logistics Management

   Pages 88-104

7. Research Design and Methodology

   Pages 105-144

8. Practices of Scenario Planning in the Logistics Service Industry

   Pages 145-184

9. Expert-Based Scenarios for the Logistics Service Industry 2025

   Pages 185-252

10. Summary and Conclusions

    Pages 253-261

11. Back Matter

    Pages 263-309

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Peter F. Drucker, one of the world’s most influential management gurus of all times, once said that “the best way to predict the future is to create it”. In other words, those managers who systematically study the future have also the power to shape and influence the future. By the means of anticipation they can prepare for the expected as well as the unexpected which allows them to react more flexible and faster than competitors. Futures research, i.e. the interdisciplinary and systematic analysis of the future, has matured to both a theoretic- conceptual and application-oriented research discipline. In his dissertation, Dr. Heiko A. von der Gracht concentrates on its most prominent and powerful tool: the scenario technique. The future of the logistics service industry is characterised by many upcoming challenges and opportunities. The industry experiences strong growth rates, but is also confronted with high complexity and dynamism. Intensifying globalisation, stronger competition, and higher customer demands are just some of the factors that lead to a more turbulent and uncertain environment. Against this background, there is a considerable need for futures orientation and innovation in logistics in order to establish flexibility, creativity, and the ability to adapt to changes quickly. The scenario technique is in fact one of the best tools to support decision making under uncertainty and can therefore be considered of high value for the logistics environment. Nevertheless, its proliferation among logistics service providers is low.

• Delphi-Technik
• Logistik
• Strategie
• Szenario-Planung
• Zukunftsforschung
• linear optimization
• logistics
• logistics management

Dr. Heiko A. von der Gracht ist Leiter des Centers for Futures Studies in Logistics & SCM am Supply Management Institute (SMI) der European Business School (EBS) in Oestrich-Winkel.

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