The Future of the World Economy

1. Front Matter

   Pages i-xix

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2. Analysis and Forecast of Economic Growth and Structural Change on the Basis of a World Model: Results of the Central Research Group

   1. Front Matter

      Pages 1-1

      PDF

   2. Growth, Decay and Structural Change

      • Wilhelm Krelle

      Pages 3-37

   3. Main Results of the Bonn—IIASA Research Project

      • Wilhelm Krelle

      Pages 39-82

   4. Economic Growth and Structural Change of OECD Countries

      • Hermann Ross

      Pages 83-118

   5. Economic Growth and Structural Change of CMEA Countries

      • Rumen Dobrinsky

      Pages 119-142

   6. The Macroeconomic Models of the European CMEA Countries

      • Rumen Dobrinsky

      Pages 143-171

   7. Economic Growth and Structural Change in Developing Countries

      • István Székely

      Pages 173-198

   8. Growth in an Interdependent World Economy: Linking the National Models through International Trade

      • Rumen Dobrinsky, István Székely

      Pages 199-232

   9. Modeling Exchange Rates and Foreign Trade of Developed Market Economies

      • Heinz Welsch

      Pages 233-258

   10. Structural Change in Foreign Trade of the CMEA Countries

       • Jan B. Gajda

       Pages 259-276

3. Analysis and Forecast of Structural Change on the Basis of Individual Country Models: Results of Collaborating Research Groups in Different Countries

   1. Front Matter

      Pages 277-277

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   2. US Economic Growth in Retrospect and Prospect

      • Bert G. Hickman

      Pages 279-300

   3. Sectoral Output, Employment, and Real Wages: Long-Run Trends for the US Economy

      • Peter Pauly

      Pages 301-310

   4. Long-Range Modeling of the USSR Economy

      • S. V. Dubovsky, O. A. Eismont

      Pages 311-324

   5. Driving Forces of Economic Structural Change: The Case of Japan in the Last Decade

      • Chikashi Moriguchi

      Pages 325-334

   6. A Long-Term Simulation of the French Economy

      • Jean-Louis Brillet

      Pages 335-351

   7. Implications of a Modernization Strategy for the United Kingdom

      • Michael Landesmann, Andrew Snell

      Pages 353-384

   8. Prospective Structural Changes in the West German Economy

      • Jürgen B. Donges, Henning Klodt, Klaus-Dieter Schmidt

      Pages 385-398

   9. Growth of the West German Economy: Forecast by the Bonn Model 11

      • Wilhelm Krelle, Hermann Sarrazin

      Pages 399-405

Economic growth and structural change - the future of the world economy - is analysed in this book. Conditional forecasts are given for the economic development of the most important world market countries till the year 2000. The driving forces of economic growth are identified and forecasted, in connection with collaborating scholars in most of these countries and with international organizations. This information is used in solving a coherent world model. The model consists of linked growth models for each country (or groups of countries). The solutions show that the inequality in international income distribution will further increase and that the CMEA and OECD countries will approximately keep their relative positions, with some changes within these groups. Structural change is also analysed. Additionally separate forecasts prepared by each collaborating country group are given and may be compared with the forecasts by the world model. The book closes with chapters on special features of the future economic development: on the international debt problem, on long waves, on structural change in the world trade, on the emergence of service economics and on the comparison of GDP and NMP national accounting.

• Economic Development
• Economic Growth
• Forecasting
• Japan
• Simulation
• exchange rates
• foreign trade
• growth
• growth model

• Institute of Social Sciences and Economics, Bonn University, Bonn 1, Germany

  Wilhelm Krelle

• IIASA International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria

  Wilhelm Krelle

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