Monetary Policy under Uncertainty

1. Front Matter

   Pages 1-19

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2. Historical Origins of Uncertainty in Economic Theory

   1. Front Matter

      Pages 7-7

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   2. Concepts of Uncertainty in Economic Literature

      • Oliver Sauter

      Pages 9-35

3. Theoretical Foundations of Monetary Policy under Uncertainty

   1. Front Matter

      Pages 37-37

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   2. Effects of Uncertainty on the Policy Design

      • Oliver Sauter

      Pages 39-82

   3. Implementing Uncertainty into Monetary Models

      • Oliver Sauter

      Pages 83-141

4. Empirical Investigations on Uncertainty

   1. Front Matter

      Pages 143-143

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   2. Assessing Uncertainty in the Euro Area and the USA

      • Oliver Sauter

      Pages 145-175

   3. Communicated Uncertainty of the ECB

      • Oliver Sauter

      Pages 177-197

5. Back Matter

   Pages 199-221

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Oliver Sauter analyzes three aspects of monetary policy under uncertainty. First he shows that the terms risk and uncertainty are often wrongly used as synonyms despite their different meanings. The second aspect is the proper examination and incorporation of uncertainty into a monetary policy framework. The author undertakes systematization with a closer look at each identified form of uncertainty. Thirdly, he focuses on the quantification of uncertainty from two different perspectives, either from a market perspective or from a central bank perspective.

• Central Bank Communication
• Monetary Policy
• Risk vs. Uncertainty
• Uncertainty

• Institut für Volkswirtschaftlehre Lehrstuhl für Wirtschaftspolitik 520a, Universität Hohenheim, Stuttgart, Germany

  Oliver Sauter

Oliver Sauter completed his doctoral thesis under the supervision of Prof. Dr. Peter Spahn at the Chair of Economics, esp. Economic Policy, at the University of Hohenheim, Stuttgart, Germany.

Policies and ethics