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Predictive Behavior

An Experimental Study

  • Book
  • © 1993

Overview

Authors:
  1. Gunnar Brennscheidt

    1. Institut für Ökonometrie und Operations Research, Universität Bonn, Bonn, Germany

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Part of the book series: Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems (LNE, volume 403)

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Table of contents (9 chapters)

  1. Front Matter

    Pages I-VI
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  2. Literature Review

    • Gunnar Brennscheidt
    Pages 1-37

  3. Rationality in Presence of Exogenous Variables

    • Gunnar Brennscheidt
    Pages 39-44

  4. Experimental Design and Notation

    • Gunnar Brennscheidt
    Pages 45-58

  5. Aggregate Forecasts

    • Gunnar Brennscheidt
    Pages 59-113

  6. Sum Results on Individual Forecasts

    • Gunnar Brennscheidt
    Pages 115-143

  7. Features of Individual Forecasts

    • Gunnar Brennscheidt
    Pages 145-196

  8. Conclusion

    • Gunnar Brennscheidt
    Pages 197-200

  9. Appendix

    • Gunnar Brennscheidt
    Pages 201-223

  10. References

    • Gunnar Brennscheidt
    Pages 225-227

  11. Back Matter

    Pages 229-234
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Keywords

About this book

This book describes a series of laboratory experiments (with a total of 167 independent subjects) on forecasting behavior. In all experiments, the time series to be forecasted was generated by an abstract econometric model involving two or three artificial exogenous variables. This designprovides an optimal background for rational expectations and least-squares learning. As expected, these hypotheses do not explain observed forecasting behavior satisfactorily. Some phenomena related to this lack of rationality are studied: Concentration on changes rather than levels,underestimation of changes and overvaluation of volatile exogenous variables. Some learning behavior is observed. Finally, some aspects of individual forecasts such as prominence of "round" number, dispersion, etc.,are studied.

Authors and Affiliations

  • Institut für Ökonometrie und Operations Research, Universität Bonn, Bonn, Germany

    Gunnar Brennscheidt

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