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Prediction of Interannual Climate Variations

  • Conference proceedings
  • © 1993

Overview

Editors:
  1. J. Shukla

    1. Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Interactions Department of Meteorology, University of Maryland at College Park, College Park, USA

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Part of the book series: Nato ASI Subseries I: (ASII, volume 6)

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Table of contents (14 papers)

  1. Front Matter

    Pages I-XV
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  3. Coupled Models

    1. Coupled Toga Models at the Ukmo

      • M. Davey, S. Lawrence, C. Gordon, S. Ineson
      Pages 107-123

    2. Toward the GCM El Niño Simulation

      • K. Miyakoda, A. Rosati, R. Gudgel
      Pages 125-151

  5. Present Status of Seasonal Forecasting

    1. Operational Seasonal Prediction at NMC

      • P. A. Arkin
      Pages 183-195

    2. Experimental Seasonal Forecasting of Tropical Rainfall at the UK Meteorological Office

      • M. N. Ward, C. K. Folland, K. Maskell, A. W. Colman, D. P. Rowell, K. B. Lane
      Pages 197-216

  6. Predictability

    1. Predictability of Short-Term Climate Variations

      • J. Shukla
      Pages 217-231

    2. Predictability of Climate

      • Antonio Speranza
      Pages 233-249

    3. On the Problem of Prediction Beyond the Deterministic Range

      • J. Tribbia, D. Baumhefner
      Pages 251-264

  7. Back Matter

    Pages 265-265
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Keywords

About this book

It has been known for some time that the behavior of the short-term fluctuations of the earth's atmosphere resembles that of a chaotic non-linear dynamical system, and that the day-to-day weather cannot be predicted beyond a few weeks. However, it has also been found that the interactions of the atmosphere with the underlying oceans and the land surfaces can produce fluctuations whose time scales are much longer than the limits of deterministic prediction of weather. It is, therefore, natural to ask whether it is possible that the seasonal and longer time averages of climate fluctuations can be predicted with sufficient skill to be beneficial for social and economic applications, even though the details of the day-to-day weather cannot be predicted beyond a few weeks. The main objective of the workshop was to address this question by assessing the current state of knowledge on predictability of seasonal and interannual climate variability and to investigate various possibilities for its prediction.

Editors and Affiliations

  • Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Interactions Department of Meteorology, University of Maryland at College Park, College Park, USA

    J. Shukla

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