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Limits of Predictability

  • Book
  • © 1993

Overview

Editors:
  1. Yurii A. Kravtsov

    1. Institute of General Physics, Small Venture GROT, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia

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Part of the book series: Springer Series in Synergetics (SSSYN, volume 60)

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Table of contents (10 chapters)

  1. Front Matter

    Pages I-XIII
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  2. Introduction

    • Yu. A. Kravtsov
    Pages 1-5

  3. Forecasting Weather and Climate

    • A. S. Monin, L. I. Piterbarg
    Pages 7-44

  4. How an Active Autowave Medium Can Be Used to Predict the Future

    • G. R. Ivanitskii
    Pages 45-73

  5. Synergetics, Predictability and Deterministic Chaos

    • G. G. Malinetskii
    Pages 75-141

  6. The Information-Theoretic Approach to Assessing Reliability of Forecasts

    • V. A. Lisichkin
    Pages 143-160

  7. Prediction of Time Series

    • M. A. Sadovskii, V. F. Pisarenko
    Pages 161-172

  8. Fundamental and Practical Limits of Predictability

    • Yu. A. Kravtsov
    Pages 173-203

  9. The Future is Foreseeable but not Predictable: The ‘Oedipus Effect’ in Social Forecasting

    • I. V. Bestuzhev-Lada
    Pages 205-222

  10. The Self-Organization of American Society in Presidential and Senatorial Elections

    • V. I. Keilis-Borok, A. J. Lichtman
    Pages 223-237

  11. Problems of Predictability in Ethnogenic Studies

    • L. N. Gumilev, V. Yu. Yermolaev
    Pages 239-250

  12. Back Matter

    Pages 251-255
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Keywords

About this book

One of the driving forces behind much of modern science and technology is the desire to foresee and thereby control the future. In recent years, however, it has become clear that, even in a deterministic world, there is alimit to the accuracy with which we can predict the future. This book details, in a largely nontechnical style, the extent to which we can predict the future development of various physical, biological and socio-economic processes.

Editors and Affiliations

  • Institute of General Physics, Small Venture GROT, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia

    Yurii A. Kravtsov

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