Technological and Social Factors in Long Term Fluctuations

1. Front Matter

   Pages N2-IX

   PDF

2. Theoretical Approaches

   1. Towards a Theory of Long Waves

      • Richard M. Goodwin

      Pages 1-15

   2. ‘Technological Revolution’ as an Innovation Superwave in the World Technological Frontier Area

      • Stanislaw Gomulka

      Pages 16-35

   3. An Endogenous Infrastructural Investment Cycle

      • Giovanni Ferri

      Pages 36-45

   4. Wage Labor Nexus, Technology and Long Run Dynamics : an Interpretation and Preliminary Tests for US

      • Robert Boyer

      Pages 46-66

   5. Social Institutions and Technical Change

      • Samuel Bowles

      Pages 67-87

   6. Custom and Innovation: Long Waves and Stages of Capitalist Development

      • Giovanni Arrighi

      Pages 89-113

   7. Some Demographic and Social Processes and the Problem of Kondratieff Cycle Periodicity

      • Ernesto Screpanti

      Pages 114-129

   8. Uncertainty, Technological Flexibility and Long Term Fluctuations

      • Alessandro Vercelli

      Pages 130-144

3. Applied Analyses

   1. Long Waves in Economic Structure

      • S. Menshikov, L. Klimenko

      Pages 145-166

   2. Technology, Structural Change and Long-Term Fluctuations

      • Tibor Vasko

      Pages 167-176

   3. The Movement of Capital’s Composition : Long Term Fluctuations and Trend

      • Louis Fontvieille

      Pages 177-205

   4. The South in the Long Wave

      • Andrew Tylecote

      Pages 206-224

   5. Cyclical Behaviour of the Cost of Labour and Long Waves

      • Geneviève Grangeas

      Pages 225-241

   6. Labour’s Share, Growth and Structural Change The Case of U.S. Industrialisation

      • Maurizio Pugno

      Pages 242-266

   7. What Makes Epochs? A Comparative Analysis of Technological and Social Explanations of Long Economic Swings

      • David M. Gordon

      Pages 267-304

4. Methodological and Historical Perspectives

   1. On Broken Trends, Random Walks and Non-Stationary Cycles

      • Peter Rappoport, Lucrezia Reichlin

      Pages 305-331

   2. Long Waves and the Uneven Development of Capitalism

      • Bengt-Ake Lundvall

      Pages 332-352

   3. The Stages of Industrial Capitalism

      • Gerhard Hanappi

      Pages 353-383

   4. Financial and Technological Innovations during the Phases of Capitalist Development

      • Enrico Santarelli

      Pages 384-402

1. The Idea behind the workshop was that of calling attention to the necessity of studying long term tendencies In economic growth. We believe that actual growth processes In capitalistic economies are not smooth phenomena and also that the evolution of the economy Is characterized by long term fluctuations as well as by trade cycles. It Is now common place to argue that this point of view was revived after 1973 In consequence of the economic difficulties experienced by Industrialized countries while It has a much older origin as Its roots can be pushed back at least to the Great Depression of the 1930's. In preparing this workshop we selected two main approaches (as reflected In the title of this book) that have been proposed In the last ten years to deal with the causes of long term fluctuations, namely the ··technologlcal"' (or neo­ SchumpeterlanLapproach and the "'social"' approsch. What follows Is simply a rough characterization of the existing theoretical positions and It Is not meant to be an exhaustive one. The Interested reader will Immediately see that there are many differentiated positions by looking at the arguments contained In each contribution.

• Schumpeter
• demography
• econometrics
• economic history
• institutions
• political economy

• Department of Political Economy, University of Siena, Siena, Italy

  Massimo Matteo, Richard M. Goodwin, Alessandro Vercelli

Policies and ethics