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A Structural Analysis of Expectation Formation

Based on Business Surveys of French Manufacturing Industry

  • Book
  • © 1991

Overview

Authors:
  1. Marc Ivaldi

    1. G.R.E.M.A.Q. and E.H.E.S.S., Université des Sciences Sociales, Toulouse Cedex, France

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Part of the book series: Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems (LNE, volume 354)

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Table of contents (9 chapters)

  1. Front Matter

    Pages N1-XII
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  2. Introduction

    1. Introduction

      • Marc Ivaldi
      Pages 1-19

  3. Forecasting Production Behavior in the Short-Run

    1. Front Matter

      Pages 20-22
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    2. The Production Smoothing Model

      • Marc Ivaldi
      Pages 23-45

    3. The Econometric Specification Using Survey Data

      • Marc Ivaldi
      Pages 46-86

    4. The General Latent Variable Model with Discrete Data

      • Marc Ivaldi
      Pages 87-111

    5. The Empirical Analysis and Forecasting

      • Marc Ivaldi
      Pages 112-139

  4. Survey Evidence on the Rationality of Expectations

    1. Front Matter

      Pages 140-142
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    2. On Testing the RE Hypothesis: A Survey

      • Marc Ivaldi
      Pages 143-157

    3. Surprise Variables and Expectational Errors

      • Marc Ivaldi
      Pages 158-171

    4. Direct Tests of the Rational Expectation Hypothesis

      • Marc Ivaldi
      Pages 172-206

  5. Conclusion

    1. Conclusion

      • Marc Ivaldi
      Pages 207-214

  6. Back Matter

    Pages 215-233
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Keywords

About this book

Using panel data of individual firms drawn from French surveys, a structural analysis is developed to study the formation of production plans and the rationality of expectations. The production decision of a firm is defined as the optimal solution of a dynamic stochastic optimization problem. The empirical work amounts to recovering the structural parameters characterizing the model of the firm from estimates of the derived decision rule. The preceding analysis of production plans is based on the assumption that firms are rational. To justify this assumption, direct tests offer evidence that the Rational Expectations Hypothesis may not be rejected for quantity variables.

Authors and Affiliations

  • G.R.E.M.A.Q. and E.H.E.S.S., Université des Sciences Sociales, Toulouse Cedex, France

    Marc Ivaldi

Bibliographic Information

  • Book Title: A Structural Analysis of Expectation Formation

  • Book Subtitle: Based on Business Surveys of French Manufacturing Industry

  • Authors: Marc Ivaldi

  • Series Title: Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-46735-6

  • Publisher: Springer Berlin, Heidelberg

  • eBook Packages: Springer Book Archive

  • Copyright Information: Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 1991

  • Softcover ISBN: 978-3-540-53665-9Published: 13 March 1991

  • eBook ISBN: 978-3-642-46735-6Published: 06 December 2012

  • Series ISSN: 0075-8442

  • Series E-ISSN: 2196-9957

  • Edition Number: 1

  • Number of Pages: XII, 230

  • Number of Illustrations: 2 b/w illustrations

  • Topics: Economic Theory/Quantitative Economics/Mathematical Methods

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