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Nonlinear Dynamics of the Lithosphere and Earthquake Prediction

  • Book
  • © 2003

Overview

Editors:
  1. Vladimir I. Keilis-Borok

    1. Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics and Department of Earth and Space Sciences, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, USA
      Russian Academy of Sciences International Institute of Earthquake Prediction, Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Moscow, Russia

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  2. Alexandre A. Soloviev

    1. Russian Academy of Sciences International Institute of Earthquake Prediction, Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Moscow, Russia

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  • The research group of Professor Keilis-Borok is highly renowned worldwide because of their holistic approach to earthquake research.
  • Includes supplementary material: sn.pub/extras

Part of the book series: Springer Series in Synergetics (SSSYN)

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Table of contents (6 chapters)

  1. Front Matter

    Pages I-XIII
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  2. Fundamentals of Earthquake Prediction: Four Paradigms

    • V. I. Keilis-Borok
    Pages 1-36

  3. Hierarchical Models of Seismicity

    • M. Shnirman, E. Blanter
    Pages 37-69

  4. Models of Dynamics of Block-and-Fault Systems

    • A. Soloviev, A. Ismail-Zadeh
    Pages 71-139

  5. Earthquake Prediction

    • V. Kossobokov, P. Shebalin
    Pages 141-207

  6. Earthquake Prediction Strategies: A Theoretical Analysis

    • G. M. Molchan
    Pages 209-237

  7. Recognition of Earthquake-Prone Areas

    • A. Gorshkov, V. Kossobokov, A. Soloviev
    Pages 239-310

  8. Back Matter

    Pages 311-338
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Keywords

About this book

The vulnerability of our civilization to earthquakes is rapidly growing, rais­ ing earthquakes to the ranks of major threats faced by humankind. Earth­ quake prediction is necessary to reduce that threat by undertaking disaster­ preparedness measures. This is one of the critically urgent problems whose solution requires fundamental research. At the same time, prediction is a ma­ jor tool of basic science, a source of heuristic constraints and the final test of theories. This volume summarizes the state-of-the-art in earthquake prediction. Its following aspects are considered: - Existing prediction algorithms and the quality of predictions they pro­ vide. - Application of such predictions for damage reduction, given their current accuracy, so far limited. - Fundamental understanding of the lithosphere gained in earthquake prediction research. - Emerging possibilities for major improvements of earthquake prediction methods. - Potential implications for predicting other disasters, besides earthquakes. Methodologies. At the heart of the research described here is the inte­ gration of three methodologies: phenomenological analysis of observations; "universal" models of complex systems such as those considered in statistical physics and nonlinear dynamics; and Earth-specific models of tectonic fault networks. In addition, the theory of optimal control is used to link earthquake prediction with earthquake preparedness.

Reviews

"This is an excellent book, [...] the first (to my knowledge) to deal with the Dynamics of the Lithosphere from the point of view of Dynamical Systems. [...] The book is well written and clearly organized. Every chapter is self-contained and addressed to graduate students and researchers in general." (Antoni M. Correig Blanchar, Newsletter of the European Geophysical Society, Oct. 15. 2003)

Editors and Affiliations

  • Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics and Department of Earth and Space Sciences, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, USA

    Vladimir I. Keilis-Borok

  • Russian Academy of Sciences International Institute of Earthquake Prediction, Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Moscow, Russia

    Vladimir I. Keilis-Borok, Alexandre A. Soloviev

Bibliographic Information

  • Book Title: Nonlinear Dynamics of the Lithosphere and Earthquake Prediction

  • Editors: Vladimir I. Keilis-Borok, Alexandre A. Soloviev

  • Series Title: Springer Series in Synergetics

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-662-05298-3

  • Publisher: Springer Berlin, Heidelberg

  • eBook Packages: Springer Book Archive

  • Copyright Information: Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2003

  • Hardcover ISBN: 978-3-540-43528-0Published: 10 December 2002

  • Softcover ISBN: 978-3-642-07806-4Published: 09 December 2010

  • eBook ISBN: 978-3-662-05298-3Published: 14 March 2013

  • Series ISSN: 0172-7389

  • Series E-ISSN: 2198-333X

  • Edition Number: 1

  • Number of Pages: XIII, 337

  • Topics: Geophysics/Geodesy, Complex Systems, Earth Sciences, general, Statistical Physics and Dynamical Systems

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