International Macroeconomics in the Wake of the Global Financial Crisis

1. Front Matter

   Pages i-xiv

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2. Introduction

   • Laurent Ferrara, Ignacio Hernando, Daniela Marconi

   Pages 1-13

3. Global Growth Slowdown: Supply-Side Factors

   1. Front Matter

      Pages 15-15

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   2. The Productivity Slowdown and the Secular Stagnation Hypothesis

      • Patrizio Pagano, Massimo Sbracia

      Pages 17-41

   3. Growth Potential in Emerging Countries

      • Enrica Di Stefano, Daniela Marconi

      Pages 43-57

   4. What are the Drivers of TFP Growth? An Empirical Assessment

      • Iván Kataryniuk, Jaime Martínez-Martín

      Pages 59-72

   5. The Unintended Consequences of Globalization and Technological Progress

      • Riccardo Cristadoro

      Pages 73-96

4. Global Growth Slowdown: Demand-Side Explanations

   1. Front Matter

      Pages 97-97

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   2. Trade Weakness: Cycle or Trend?

      • Alessandro Borin, Virginia Di Nino, Michele Mancini, Massimo Sbracia

      Pages 99-114

   3. The Role of Debt Dynamics in US Household Consumption

      • Vincent Grossmann-Wirth, Clément Marsilli

      Pages 115-128

   4. Explaining Weak Investment Growth After the Great Recession: A Macro-Panel Analysis

      • Ines Buono, Sara Formai

      Pages 129-155

5. New Challenges for Monetary Policies at a Time of High Uncertainty, Low Inflation and Low Real Interest Rates

   1. Front Matter

      Pages 157-157

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   2. Uncertainty Fluctuations: Measures, Effects and Macroeconomic Policy Challenges

      • Laurent Ferrara, Stéphane Lhuissier, Fabien Tripier

      Pages 159-181

   3. Determinants and Implications of Low Global Inflation Rates

      • Juan Carlos Berganza, Fructuoso Borrallo, Pedro del Río

      Pages 183-216

   4. The Global Real Interest Rate: Past Developments and Outlook

      • Ignacio Hernando, Daniel Santabárbara, Javier Vallés

      Pages 217-229

6. Exchange Rate Shocks, Capital Flows and International Spillovers

   1. Front Matter

      Pages 231-231

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   2. The Nature of the Shock Matters: Some Model-Based Results on the Macroeconomic Effects of Exchange Rate

      • Sophie Haincourt

      Pages 233-247

   3. International Financial Flows in the New Normal: Key Patterns (and Why We Should Care)

      • Matthieu Bussière, Julia Schmidt, Natacha Valla

      Pages 249-269

   4. International Spillovers of Non-standard Monetary Policy: Evidence From Central and Eastern Europe

      • Alessio Ciarlone, Andrea Colabella

      Pages 271-298

This book collects selected articles addressing several currently debated issues in the field of international macroeconomics. They focus on the role of the central banks in the debate on how to come to terms with the long-term decline in productivity growth, insufficient aggregate demand, high economic uncertainty and growing inequalities following the global financial crisis.

Central banks are of considerable importance in this debate since understanding the sluggishness of the recovery process as well as its implications for the natural interest rate are key to assessing output gaps and the monetary policy stance. The authors argue that a more dynamic domestic and external aggregate demand helps to raise the inflation rate, easing the constraint deriving from the zero lower bound and allowing monetary policy to depart from its current ultra-accommodative position.

Beyond macroeconomic factors, the book also discusses a supportive financial environment as a precondition for the rebound of global economic activity, stressing that understanding capital flows is a prerequisite for economic-policy decisions.

• Potential output growth
• Aggregate demand
• Monetary policy
• Uncertainty
• Natural interest rate
• Exchange rate shocks
• Capital flows
• financial crises

• Directorate for International and European Relationships, Banque de France, Paris, France

  Laurent Ferrara

• Associate Directorate General International Affairs, Banco de España, Madrid, Spain

  Ignacio Hernando

• Directorate for International Relations and Economics, Banca d’Italia, Rome, Italy

  Daniela Marconi

Laurent Ferrara is head of the International Macroeconomics Division at the Banque de France and adjunct professor of Economics at the University of Paris Nanterre. He holds a PhD in Applied Mathematics from the University of Paris North (2001) and a postdoctoral  qualification in Economics from the University of Paris 1 – Panthéon – Sorbonne (2007). His academic research mainly focuses on international economics, macroeconomic forecasting, non-linear econometric methods and business cycle analysis.

Ignacio Hernando has been head of the International Economics Division at Banco de España since 2010. He received his B.A. in Economics at Universidad Complutense de Madrid, an M.A. in Monetary Economics at CEMFI, and a PhD in Economics at UNED. He is a member of the International Relations Committee of the European System of Central Banks. His main research interests are international macroeconomics and monetary policy.

Daniela Marconiis a senior advisor at Banca d’Italia. Since 2002, she has worked in the International Relations and Economics Directorate, conducting macroeconomic analysis and research on emerging markets. She holds an M.A. in Economics from CORIPE Piemonte (Turin, Italy) and an M.A. in Economics from Duke University (NC, USA). Her main academic interests are international macroeconomics, technological advances, economic growth and environmental economics. She has authored numerous papers and articles in these areas.

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