Handbook of Marketing Decision Models

The Second Edition of this book presents the state of the art in this important field. Marketing decision models constitute a core component of the marketing discipline and the area is changing rapidly, not only due to fundamental advances in methodology and model building, but also because of the recent developments in information technology, the Internet and social media.

This Handbook contains eighteen chapters that cover the most recent developments of marketing decision models in different domains of marketing. Compared to the previous edition, thirteen chapters are entirely new, while the remaining chapters represent complete updates and extensions of the previous edition. This new edition of the Handbook has chapters on models for substantive marketing problems, such as customer relationship management, customer loyalty management, website design, Internet advertising, social media, and social networks. In addition, it contains chapters on recent methodologicaldevelopments that are gaining popularity in the area of marketing decision models, such as structural modeling, learning dynamics, choice modeling, eye-tracking and measurement. The introductory chapter discusses the main developments of the last decade and discusses perspectives for future developments.

• Customer Lifetime Value
• Eye Tracking
• Marketing Decision Models
• Marketing Models
• Online Marketing
• Structural Econometrics

• Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University, Rotterdam, South Holland, The Netherlands

  Berend Wierenga

• Department of Marketing, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Kowloon, Hong Kong

  Ralf van der Lans

Editors

Berend Wierenga is Professor of Marketing at the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University. His main research areas are marketing models, managerial decision making in marketing, and marketing management support systems. He published widely on these topics in journals such as International Journal of Research in Marketing, Journal of Marketing, Journal of Marketing Research, Management Science, Marketing Science, and many others. His books include Marketing Management Support Systems: Principles, Tools and Implementation (2000) and Marketing Decision Making and Decision Support (2010) (both with Gerrit van Bruggen). Berend Wierenga is the Founding Editor of the International Journal of Research in Marketing (Journal of the European Marketing Academy-EMAC) and is the Editor of the first edition of the Handbook of Marketing Decision Models (2008). Before joining Erasmus University, he was a faculty member at Wageningen University where he also obtained his PhD. He held visiting positions at Stanford University, INSEAD, and The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. At Rotterdam School of Management, Berend Wierenga was Chairman of the Marketing Department, Scientific Director of ERIM (Erasmus Research Institute of Management), and Dean of the School. He is the recipient of the inaugural EMAC Distinguished Marketing Scholar Award, the Ad Fontes Penning of the Erasmus University, and he was appointed Officer in the Order of Oranje-Nassau.

Ralf van der Lans is Associate Professor of Marketing at Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Hong Kong.  He has a MSc in econometrics from Erasmus University Rotterdam and a Ph.D. (both cum laude) from Tilburg University, the Netherlands. His main research interests are in eye-tracking, social networks and choice for which he develops statistical and econometric models to improve marketing decisions in these areas. His research appeared in journals such as Marketing Science, Journal of Marketing Research, International Journal of Research in Marketing, and Journal of the American Statistical Association.  Van der Lans is a member of the editorial board of the International Journal of Research in Marketing and has won several research and teaching awards.

Contributing Authors

Harald van Heerde is Research Professor of Marketing and MSA Charitable Trust Chair in Marketing at Massey University, Auckland, New Zealand.  He has an MSC in Econometrics (cum laude) and a Ph.D. (cum laude) from the University of Groningen, the Netherlands. He has published in the major marketing journals about measuring marketing effectiveness, with a special emphasis on dynamic effects and time-varying parameters.  Van Heerde serves as an Associate Editor at Marketing Science and at theJournal of Marketing Research and as an editorial board member at the Journal of Marketing and the International Journal of Research in Marketing. 

Scott A. Neslin is the Albert Wesley Frey Professor of Marketing at the Tuck School of Business, Dartmouth College.  He has been a visiting scholar at the Yale School of Management, the Fuqua School of Business, and Columbia Business School. Professor Neslin’s expertise is in sales promotion, advertising, and database marketing. He is co-author with Robert C. Blattberg of the book, Sales Promotion: Concepts, Methods, and Strategies, and author of the Marketing Science Institute monograph, Sales Promotion. Professor Neslin has served as President of the INFORMS Society for Marketing Science (ISMS) and is an ISMS Fellow. Website:  http://mba.tuck.dartmouth.edu/pages/faculty/scott.neslin/

Tingting Fan is an assistant professor at Department of Marketing, Business School of The Chinese University ofHong Kong. She got her Ph.D. from Stern School of Business, New York University. Her research interest includes quantitative marketing, consumer experience with high-technology products and services, digital marketing (mobile phone, video games, and online social network), branding, and empirical IO (industrial organization). Her research has won research grants from Wharton Customer Analytics Initiative (WCAI), Marketing Science Institute (MSI), and Product Development Management Association (PDMA). She is now teaching Marketing Management and New Product Management.

Peter N. Golder is Professor of Marketing at the Tuck School of Business at Dartmouth. His research on market entry timing, new products, long-term market leadership, and quality has won more than 10 best paper or best book awards including several of the most prestigious awards in the field: O'Dell (Journal of Marketing Research), Maynard (Journal of Marketing), INFORMS Long Term Impact Award (MarketingScience), Bass (Marketing Science), and Berry Book Prize (American Marketing Association).

Donald R. Lehmann is George E. Warren Professor of Business at Columbia University Graduate School of Business.  He has a B.S. degree in mathematics from Union College, Schenectady, New York, and an M.S.I.A. and PhD from the Krannert School of Purdue University. His research interests include modeling choice and decision making, meta-analysis, the introduction and adoption of innovations, and the measurement and management of marketing assets (customers and brands).  He has taught courses in marketing, management, and statistics at Columbia, and has also taught at Cornell, Dartmouth, and New York University.  He has published in and served on the editorial boards of Journal of Consumer Research, Journal of Marketing, Journal of Marketing Research, Management Science, and Marketing Science, and was the founding editor of Marketing Letters and editor of the International Journal of Research in Marketing.  In addition to numerous journal articles, he has published several books: including Market Research and Analysis, Analysis for Marketing Planning, Product Management, Meta Analysis in Marketing, and Managing Customers as Investments.  He has won best paper awards from several journals, multiple lifetime achievement awards, and is a Fellow of both the Association for Consumer Research and the Informs Society for Marketing Science. Professor Lehmann has served as Executive Director of the Marketing Science Institute and as President of the Association for Consumer Research.  

Dominique Hanssens is Distinguished Research Professor of Marketing at the UCLA Anderson School of Management. From 2005 to 2007 he served as Executive Director of the Marketing Science Institute. A Purdue University Ph.D. graduate, Professor Hanssens’s research focuses on strategic marketing problems, in particular marketing productivity. He is a Fellow and winner of the Buck Weaver award of the INFORMS Society for Marketing Science, and a recipient of the Churchill and Mahajan awards from the American Marketing Association. He is a founding partner of MarketShare, a global marketing analytics firm headquartered in Los Angeles.

Marnik G. Dekimpe (Ph.D., University of California, Los Angeles) is Research Professor of Marketing and Head of the Marketing Department at Tilburg University (The Netherlands) and Professor of Marketing at KU Leuven (Belgium).   He has won best-paper awards in Marketing Science, the Journal of Marketing Research, the Journal of Marketing, the International Journal of Research in Marketing, and Technological Forecasting and Social Change.   In 2016, he won the EMAC Distinguished Marketing Scholar Award, a life-time achievement award granted by the European Marketing Academy.  In 2010-2012, he served as editor-in-chief of the International Journal of Research in Marketing, the leading European marketing journal. He is currently an academic trustee with AiMark. 

Tammo H.A. Bijmolt is Professor in Marketing Research at the University of Groningen, the Netherlands. His research interest include loyalty programs, retailing, e-commerce, advertising, and meta-analysis. His publications have appeared in leading international journals, such as Journal of Marketing, Journal of Marketing Research, Marketing Science, Journal of Consumer Research, International Journal of Research in Marketing, and Psychometrika. He won the best paper award in 2007 of the International Journal of Research in Marketing, and in 2011 of the Journal of Interactive Marketing. He is vice-president of the European Institute of Advanced Studies in Management (EIASM, Brussels).

Peter C. Verhoef (1972) is Professor of Marketing at the Department of Marketing, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Groningen, The Netherlands. His publications appeared in journals, such as Journal of Marketing, Journal of Marketing Research, Marketing Science and International Journal of Research in Marketing. His research has received multiple awards. He functions as a senior editor for the International Journal of Research in Marketing and as area editor for the Journal of Marketing Research and Marketing Science. He is the founder of the Customer Insights Center. He has published a book on big data analytics in marketing: www.bigdatasmartmarketing.com

Pradeep K. Chintagunta is the Joseph T. and Bernice S. Lewis Distinguished Service Professor of Marketing at the Booth School of Business, University of Chicago. He is interested in empirically studying consumer, agent and firm behavior, and more recently, “development marketing” – studying the role of marketing in economic development. He graduated from Northwestern University and has also served on the faculty of the Johnson School, Cornell University. He has been a visiting professor at Harvard and Stanford universities. He is currently the Coordinating editor of the journal “Quantitative Marketing & Economics.”

Greg Allenby is the Kurtz Chair in Marketing at Ohio State University.  He is a Fellow of the INFORMS Society for Marketing Science and the American Statistical Association.  He is also the 2012 recipient of the AMA Parlin Award for his contributions to the field of marketing research and also a recipient of the ISMS Long-Term Impact award.  He is past editor of Quantitative Marketing and Economics, and past area/associate editor for Marketing Science, Journal of Marketing Research, the Journal of Business and Economic Statistics. 

Jaehwan Kim is a professor of marketing and associate dean at Korea University Business School, Seoul, Korea. He obtained a Ph.D. from the Ohio State University. His research is focused on microeconomic model for consumer demand including multiple-discreteness and constraint-based decision. His research has been published in Marketing Science and Journal of Econometrics.

Peter E. Rossi is James Collins Professor of Marketing, Economics and Statistics at the Anderson School of Management, UCLA. He received his PhD from University of Chicago and BA from Oberlin College.  He has published widely in marketing, economics, statistics and econometrics with more than 14,000 Google Scholar cites.  He is a co-author of Bayesian Statistics and Marketing, John Wiley Series in Probability and Statistics (2005) and author of Bayesian Semi and Non-parametric Methods in Marketing and Micro-Econometrics, Princeton University Press (2014).  He is author of the R package, bayesm. A fellow of the American Statistical Association and the Journal of Econometrics, he is founding editor, Quantitative Marketing and Economics. 

Andrew Ching is a Professor of Marketing and Economics at University of Toronto (Rotman School of Management and Department of Economics).  He is an Associate Editor for Management Science, and a member of editorial board for Marketing Science and Journal of Marketing Research.  He has received several major research grants from Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council.  He has published research articles in Econometrica, Marketing Science, Management Science, Quantitative Marketing and Economics, Journal of Banking and Finance, International Economic Review, Journal of Applied Econometrics, International Journal of Industrial Organization, Journal of Choice Modelling, Marketing Letters. 

Tülin Erdem is the Leonard N. Stern School Professor of Business and Professor of Marketing at the Stern School of Business, NYU. Before joining Stern in 2006, she has also been the E.T. Grether Professor of Business Administration and Marketing at the Haas School of Business, University of California at Berkeley. She has received best paper awards, as well majorresearch grants, including two major National Science Foundation grants. She served as an Area Editor at several top journals. She was the editor-in-chief of the Journal of Marketing Research (2009-2012). She also served as the President of INFORMS Marketing Society.

Michael Keane is the Nuffield Professor of Economics at Oxford, and a Chief Investigator of CEPAR at UNSW. He previously held positions as Professor of Economics at Minnesota, NYU, Yale and UTS. Professional honours include: Fellow of the Econometric Society (2005), Australian Federation Fellow (2005), Council of the Econometric Society (2009), Australian Laureate Fellow (2012) and Fellow of the Journal of Econometrics (2016). Keane is best known for work on simulation methods (e.g., the “GHK algorithm”) that have made estimation of complex discrete choice models more feasible, and for contributions to the theory and application of dynamic discrete choice models. 

Hans Baumgartner (Ph.D., Stanford University) is Chair of the Marketing Department and Smeal Professor of Marketing in the Smeal College of Business at the Pennsylvania State University.  His research interests are in the areas of consumer behavior and research methodology. He has published articles on these topics in the Journal of Consumer Research, Journal of Marketing Research, Marketing Science, Journal of Marketing, Journal of Consumer Psychology, International Journal of Research in Marketing, Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Psychological Methods, and Journal of Economic Literature, among others.

Bert Weijters (Ph.D. in Marketing; Ghent University 2006) does research on survey methods, with a focus on response bias (response styles, context effects and comprehension difficulties) and methods for dealing with such bias through questionnaire design and data analysis. Bert also studies consumer behavior, specifically technology-enabled consumption (self-service technologies, digital music consumption), brand perceptions (brand personality, prototypical brands), and green consumption. His work has been published in the Journal of Consumer Research, Journal of Marketing Research, Psychological Methods, International Journal of Research in Marketing, Journal of Business Ethics, Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, Applied Psychological Measurement, and other outlets.

Eva Ascarza is an Associate Professor of Marketing at Columbia Business School. She is a marketing modeler who uses tools from statistics, economics and machine learning to answer relevant marketing questions. Her main research areas are customer analytics and customer relationship management, with special attention to the problem of customer retention. She uses field experimentation (e.g., A/B testing) as well as econometric modeling and machine learning tools not only to understand and predict patterns of behavior, but also to optimize the impact of firms’ interventions.

Peter Fader is the Frances and Pei-Yuan Chia Professor of Marketing at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. His expertise centers around the analysis of behavioral data to understand and forecast customer shopping/purchasing activities. Some of these insights are reflected in his book, “Customer Centricity: Focus on the Right Customers for Strategic Advantage,” while others are brought to life via Zodiac (http://www.zodiacmetrics.com/), a tech firm (which he co-founded) that aims to make top-notch customer valuation models (and their applications) accessible to a broad array of data-driven organizations.

Bruce Hardie is a Professor of Marketing at London Business School. His research and teaching interests lie in the areas of customer and marketing analytics. Much of his research focuses on the development of stochastic models of buyer behaviour for customer-base analysis, with an emphasis on ones that can be implemented in Excel, thus lowering the barriers to adoption by firms.

Michel Wedel is the Pepsico Chaired Professor of Consumer Science at the Robert H. Smith School of Business, and a Distinguished University Professor, at the University of Maryland. He was ranked the most productive marketing researcher in the world. He has been a consultant for many companies like Microsoft, Procter & Gamble, Mars, Unilever, Daimler, McKinsey, Nielsen, Gfk and TNS amongst others. Professor Wedel has fundamentally improved the understanding of consumer behavior and marketing decision making by developing and applying advanced statistical and econometric methods. He is a pioneer in the development of eye-tracking methodology and is considered a worldwide expert on visual marketing. Professor Wedel has published more than 175 peer reviewed articles and over 20 book chapters which have been cited over 16,000 times. He is area editor of Marketing Science, the Journal of Marketing Research and the Journal of Marketing. Wedel’s work has received several awards. He received the Muller award for outstanding contributions to the social sciences from the Royal Dutch Academy of the Sciences, the Churchill award for lifetime contributions to the study of marketing research from the American Marketing Academy, and is a fellow of the American Statistical Association and the Institute for Operations research and Management Science. 

Barbara Deleersnyder is an Associate Professor of Marketing at the Tilburg University, the Netherlands. She teaches courses in strategic marketing management and advanced research techniques. Her research interests are in the area of branding and new product development in retailing, the impact of general economic conditions on consumer and firm behavior, market(ing) performance measurement and management of change. Her studies have appeared in international marketing journals under which the Journal of Marketing, the Journal of Marketing Research, the International Journal of Research in Marketing, and Quantitative Marketing and Economics.

Vardan Avagyan is assistant professor of marketing at Erasmus School of Economics, Erasmus University Rotterdam. He received his Ph.D. in business administration and quantitative methods with a major in marketing from University of Carlos 3, Madrid. His research primarily focuses on innovation, including topics such as innovation decisions at the fuzzy front-end and innovation commercialization. His work appeared in journals such as International Journal of Research in Marketing and European Journal of Operational Research.

Vardit Landsman is an Associate Professor at the Erasmus School of Economics, Erasmus University Rotterdam and a senior lecturer at the Coller School of Management, Tel-Aviv University. Her research focuses on the implementation of new modeling approaches and advanced estimation methods to the study of marketing phenomena. Her recent work on the pharmaceuticalindustry deals with physician-patient relationship structures, physicians’ characteristics as a source of heterogeneity in market behavior and the effect of regulations on market outcomes for pharmaceutical drugs. Her research was published in top marketing journals such as Marketing Science, the Journal of Marketing and Management Science. 

Stefan Stremersch holds the Desiderius Erasmus Distinguished Chair of Economics and a Chair of Marketing, both at Erasmus School of Economics, Erasmus University Rotterdam, the Netherlands and is professor of Marketing at IESE Business School, Barcelona, Spain. His main research interests are innovation, marketing of technology and science, and pharmaceutical marketing. Stremersch has won several awards, such as the Harold H. Maynard Best Paper Award of the Journal of Marketing (2002), the IJRM Best Paper Award (2012 & 2014), the JC Ruigrok Prize for the most productive young research in the Netherlands (2005; awarded only once every 4 years to an economists), the Rajan Varadarajan Early Career Award of the American Marketing Association (2008), the American Marketing Association's Award for Global Marketing (2006) and he was a finalist for the Informs Marketing Science Long Term Impact Award in 2009, 2010, 2013 and 2014. In 2015, Ghent University and the Francqui Foundation awarded him the honorary International Francqui Chair, selected across all sciences.

Randolph E. Bucklin is Professor of Marketing at the UCLA Anderson School where he holds the Peter W. Mullin Chair. Professor Bucklin’s research focuses on the quantitative analysis of customer behavior. He specializes in models using historical records of customer transactions from bar-code scanner and digital marketing data. His recent work has been recognized with the Paul Green Award (2011 and 2012) and the William F. O’Dell Award (2015 and 2016). Professor Bucklin served as co-editor of the Journal of Marketing Research (2014-16) andco-editor of Marketing Letters (2006-10). He was faculty chairman and deputy dean at the Anderson School from 2012 to 2015.

Paul R. Hoban is an Assistant Professor of Marketing at the Wisconsin School of Business at the University of Wisconsin - Madison. His research leverages quantitative methods to study consumer response and firm decision making. His work has been published in the Journal of Marketing Research, and he has served as a reviewer for Marketing Science and the Journal of Marketing Research. Professor Hoban earned his undergraduate degree in marketing from Michigan State University before earning his Ph.D. from the UCLA Anderson School of Management. Before his academic career, he worked as an analyst and consultant in the e-commerce space.

Peter Danaher is Professor of Marketing and Econometrics at Monash University in Australia. Formerly, he was Coles Myer Chair of Marketing and Retailing at the Melbourne Business School, and was previously atthe University of Auckland. He has held visiting positions at London Business School, The Wharton School, NYU and MIT. He is an Area Editor for the Journal of Marketing Research, and also serves on the Editorial Boards of Marketing Science, IJRM  and the Journal of Service Research. His primary research interests are media exposure distributions, advertising effectiveness, television audience measurement and behavior, internet usage behavior, customer satisfaction measurement, forecasting and sample surveys, resulting in many publications in journals such as the Journal of Marketing Research, Marketing Science, Journal of the American Statistical Association and the Journal of Marketing.

Wendy Moe is Professor of Marketing and Director of the Masters of Science in Marketing Analytics at the University of Maryland’s Smith School of Business.  She is an expert in online and social media marketing, focusing on analytics.  Professor Moe has been recognized by the American Marketing Association and the Marketing Science Institute as a leading scholar in her field with the Howard Award, the Young Scholar Award, the Erin Anderson Award and the Buzzell Award. She holds a PhD, MA and BS from the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania as well as an MBA from Georgetown University.

Oded Netzer is the Associate Professor of Business at Columbia Business School and an affiliate with the Columbia Data Science Institute. He received an M.Sc. in Statistics and a Ph.D. in Business, from Stanford University. Professor Netzer's research centers on one of the major business challenges of the 21st century: developing quantitative methods that leverage data to gain a deeper understanding of customer behavior and guide firms' decisions. His research has been published in top journals. Professor Netzer won multiple awards for his research and teaching. He is the winner of the ISMS long-term award, best paper awards, outstanding dissertationaward, and Columbia Business School Award for teaching excellence. 

David A. Schweidel is Goizueta Term Chair Professor, Caldwell Research Fellow and Associate Professor of Marketing at the Goizueta Business School of Emory University. Schweidel received his B.A. in mathematics, M.A. in statistics, and Ph.D. in marketing from the University of Pennsylvania. Prior to joining Emory in 2012, he was on the faculty of the Wisconsin School of Business at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. Schweidel is an expert in the areas of customer relationship management and social media analytics. His research focuses on the development and application of statistical models to understand customer behavior and inform managerial decisions.

Xi Chen is Assistant Professor of the Marketing Management Department at Erasmus University, where he has been since 2014. He received his Ph.D. in Marketing from Hong Kong University of Science and Technology in 2013. His research interests span both marketing and network science. Much of his work has been on generating new marketing insights and improving marketing performance with network theory. His work has been published in Journal of Marketing Research.

Michael Trusov is Associate Professor of Marketing at the Robert H. Smith School of Business at the University of Maryland. His research interests include social media, search engines, social networks, e-commerce, recommendation systems, user-generated content, text analysis, eye-tracking and machine learning. His research has won several awards, including the O'Dell Award, the Paul Green Award, the Donald Lehmann Award, the SMA Emerging Scholar Award, the Emerald Management Reviews Citation of Excellence Award, and the MSI's Alden Clayton Award. Professor Trusov has extensive industry experience in the area of software development and IT consulting specializing in marketing automation, database management, Internet applications, and e-commerce.

Gui Liberali is associate professor at the Erasmus University (RSM).  His research has been published in Marketing Science, Management Science, IJRM, EJOR, and Sloan Management Review.  Gui is co-editor of an IJRM special issue, co-chair of the 1st AMA and EMAC joint symposium, finalist of the John Little award, and founder of the Erasmus Centre for Optimization of Digital Experiments.  His research focused on optimization, multi-armed bandits, morphing, and online experimentation. Gui was a visiting scholar at the MIT Sloan School of Management for several years. He holds a Doctorate in Marketing, and a B.Sc. in Computer Science. 

John R. Hauser is the Kirin Professor of Marketing at the MIT Sloan School of Management.  He has co-authored textbooks on product development, is a former editor of Marketing Science, a founder and principal at Applied Marketing Science, Inc., a former trustee of the Marketing Science Institute, a fellow ofINFORMS and ISMS, and past-President of ISMS. He has won the Converse, Parlin, and Buck Weaver Awards. He teaches marketing management and research methods and enjoys research on a variety of practical and sometimes less practical topics.

Glen Urban is the David Austin Professor in Management (Emeritus) at the MIT Sloan School of Management.  He has been a member of the MIT Sloan School of Management faculty since 1966, was Deputy Dean at the school from 1987 to 1991, and Dean from 1993 to 1998.  Urban  is co-author of seven books and numerous papers.  His papers have won several prestigious awards, including two O'Dells.  He has received the Paul D. Converse, Charles Parlin, and Buck Weaver Awards for lifetime achievement in marketing research.  His current research is on Deep Learning applied to marketing decisions.

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