Overview
- Sheds light on many innovative ideas and pragmatic approaches for tackling natural and man-made mega-risk issues
- Lays the framework from both a philosophical and pragmatic perspective as to why divergent answers from competitive approaches to mega-risk problems are not only a necessity but also an unavoidable
- Develops a process for incorporating outliers of predicted future losses in the analysis of future risks
- Discusses various analytical methods to utilize the divergent solutions in making pragmatic financial and risk-mitigation decisions
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Table of contents (9 chapters)
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Front Matter
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Introduction and Scope
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Front Matter
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Discussion and Analysis of 17th-Early 20th Approaches to Understanding Risk
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Front Matter
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The Dilemma of “Infinity”
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Front Matter
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New Ways of Thinking
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Front Matter
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Possible Futures
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Front Matter
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Back Matter
Keywords
About this book
This book introduces a new way of analyzing, measuring and thinking about mega-risks, a “paradigm shift” that moves from single-solutions to multiple competitive solutions and strategies. “Robust simulation” is a statistical approach that demonstrates future risk through simulation of a suite of possible answers. To arrive at this point, the book systematically walks through the historical statistical methods for evaluating risks. The first chapters deal with three theories of probability and statistics that have been dominant in the 20th century, along with key mathematical issues and dilemmas. The book then introduces “robust simulation” which solves the problem of measuring the stability of simulated losses, incorporates outliers, and simulates future risk through a suite of possible answers and stochastic modeling of unknown variables. This book discusses various analytical methods for utilizing divergent solutions in making pragmatic financial and risk-mitigation decisions. The book emphasizes the importance of flexibility and attempts to demonstrate that alternative credible approaches are helpful and required in understanding a great many phenomena.
Authors and Affiliations
Bibliographic Information
Book Title: Robust Simulation for Mega-Risks
Book Subtitle: The Path from Single-Solution to Competitive, Multi-Solution Methods for Mega-Risk Management
Authors: Craig E. Taylor
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-19413-4
Publisher: Springer Cham
eBook Packages: Earth and Environmental Science, Earth and Environmental Science (R0)
Copyright Information: Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2015
Hardcover ISBN: 978-3-319-19412-7Published: 20 November 2015
Softcover ISBN: 978-3-319-36907-5Published: 23 August 2016
eBook ISBN: 978-3-319-19413-4Published: 11 November 2015
Edition Number: 1
Number of Pages: XXI, 164
Topics: Natural Hazards, Simulation and Modeling, Complex Systems