Bending the Law of Unintended Consequences

1. Front Matter

   Pages i-xxi

   PDF

2. Introduction

   • Richard M. Adler

   Pages 1-12

3. Part I

   1. Front Matter

      Pages 13-13

      PDF

   2. Critical Decisions

      • Richard M. Adler

      Pages 15-29

   3. The Law of Unintended Consequences

      • Richard M. Adler

      Pages 31-40

   4. Psychology of Critical Decision-Making

      • Richard M. Adler

      Pages 41-62

   5. Rational Decision-Making

      • Richard M. Adler

      Pages 63-77

4. Part II

   1. Front Matter

      Pages 79-80

      PDF

   2. Countering Cognitive Biases

      • Richard M. Adler

      Pages 81-94

   3. Business Intelligence, Analytics, and Their Discontents

      • Richard M. Adler

      Pages 95-105

   4. Modeling and Simulation

      • Richard M. Adler

      Pages 107-126

   5. Test Drive Your Critical Decisions

      • Richard M. Adler

      Pages 127-149

5. Part III

   1. Front Matter

      Pages 151-152

      PDF

   2. Competitive Marketing Strategy

      • Richard M. Adler

      Pages 153-171

   3. Disruptive Growth

      • Richard M. Adler

      Pages 173-189

   4. Managing Enterprise Risk

      • Richard M. Adler

      Pages 191-213

   5. Enabling Organizational Change

      • Richard M. Adler

      Pages 215-237

6. Part IV

   1. Front Matter

      Pages 239-240

      PDF

   2. Pragmatics

      • Richard M. Adler

      Pages 241-252

   3. Summary

      • Richard M. Adler

      Pages 253-259

This title provides managers, executives and other professionals with an innovative method for critical decision-making. The book explains the reasons for decision failures using the Law of Unintended Consequences. This account draws on the work of sociologist Robert K. Merton, psychologists Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman, and economist Herbert Simon to identify two primary causes⁠: cognitive biases and bounded rationality. It introduces an innovative method for “test driving” decisions that addresses both causes by combining scenario planning and “what-if” simulations. This method enables professionals to learn safely from virtual mistakes rather than real ones. It also provides four sample test drives of realistic critical decisions as well as two instructional videos to illustrate this new method. This book provides leaders and their support teams with important new tools for analyzing and refining complex decisions that are critical to organizational well-being and survival.

• Critical Decision-making
• Decision Analysis
• decision strategy
• decision science
• Law of Unintended Consequences
• Robert K. Merton
• Amos Tversky
• Daniel Kahneman
• Herbert Simon
• Psychology of Critical Decision Making
• Decision Test-Drives
• Decision Lifecycle
• DecisionPath
• Rational Decision Making
• Modeling and Simulating Critical Decisions
• ForeTell Software
• Modeling Transformational Change

• DecisionPath, Winchester, USA

  Richard M. Adler

Richard M. Adler is Founder and President of DecisionPath (USA), where he creates advanced decision support solutions for diverse problems including competitive marketing, counter-terrorism strategy, and enabling organizational change. He has more than three decades of experience building software tools and applications to automate and improve business operations and critical decision-making. Richard has published on topics including intelligent and distributed systems, simulation, homeland security, and knowledge management.

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