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Old and New Perspectives on Mortality Forecasting

  • Book
  • Open Access
  • © 2019

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Overview

  • This open access edited collection describes state-of-the-art methods of mortality forecasting
  • Includes statistical approaches as well as behavioural and biological perspectives
  • Provides an interdisciplinary approach to the topic

Part of the book series: Demographic Research Monographs (DEMOGRAPHIC)

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Table of contents (24 chapters)

Keywords

About this book

This open access book describes methods of mortality forecasting and discusses possible improvements.  It contains a selection of previously unpublished and published papers, which together provide a state-of-the-art overview of statistical approaches as well as behavioural and biological perspectives.  The different parts of the book provide discussions of current practice, probabilistic forecasting, the linearity in the increase of life expectancy, causes of death, and the role of cohort factors. The key question in the book is whether it is possible to project future mortality accurately, and if so, what is the best approach. This makes the book a valuable read to demographers, pension planners, actuaries, and all those interested and/or working in modelling and forecasting mortality.

Editors and Affiliations

  • Centre for Economic Demography, Lund University, Lund, Sweden

    Tommy Bengtsson

  • Department of Economics, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway

    Nico Keilman

About the editors

Tommy Bengtsson is Professor of Demography and Economic History, Lund University. He received his doctoral degree from Lund University in 1980 on a dissertation on 20th century technological change and labor market issues. Afterwards, he started to work in the area of population economics, especially on demographic response to short-term changes in real wages using historical records at macro level for Sweden. Next, he combined an event history approach with a time-series approach to analyze the effects of changes in real wages on demographic outcomes at micro level. Later, he used a similar approach studying the effects of conditions in early life on health and socioeconomic performance later in life. To be able to do so, he build up the Scanian Economic Demographic Database (SEDD), which is closing the gap between the historical and contemporary datasets and today, the Centre for Economic Demography (CED), which he started in 2006, is administrating the database. Bengtssonhas also been involved in studies on population ageing and welfare state as well as on the current immigration to Sweden.

 

Nico Keilman is Professor of Demography at the Department of Economics, University of Oslo, since 1994. He studied applied mathematics and demography at the universities of Delft and Utrecht, and received his doctoral degree at the latter university in 1990, for a dissertation on the accuracy of population forecasts. He has more than 30 years of experience in mathematical and statistical research on demographic models for the dynamics of living arrangements, mortality projections, and demographic methods in general. From 2006 until 2011, he was the editor of Demographic Research. 

Bibliographic Information

  • Book Title: Old and New Perspectives on Mortality Forecasting

  • Editors: Tommy Bengtsson, Nico Keilman

  • Series Title: Demographic Research Monographs

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-05075-7

  • Publisher: Springer Cham

  • eBook Packages: Social Sciences, Social Sciences (R0)

  • Copyright Information: The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s) 2019

  • Hardcover ISBN: 978-3-030-05074-0Published: 10 April 2019

  • eBook ISBN: 978-3-030-05075-7Published: 28 March 2019

  • Series ISSN: 1613-5520

  • Series E-ISSN: 2197-9286

  • Edition Number: 1

  • Number of Pages: XI, 349

  • Number of Illustrations: 81 b/w illustrations, 29 illustrations in colour

  • Topics: Demography, Population Economics, Statistics for Social Sciences, Humanities, Law

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