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Low-Probability High-Consequence Risk Analysis

Issues, Methods, and Case Studies

  • Book
  • © 1984

Overview

Editors:
  1. Ray A. Waller

    1. Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, USA

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    You can also search for this editor in PubMed   Google Scholar

  2. Vincent T. Covello

    1. U.S. National Science Foundation, USA

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    You can also search for this editor in PubMed   Google Scholar

Part of the book series: Advances in Risk Analysis (AIRA, volume 2)

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Table of contents (32 chapters)

  1. Front Matter

    Pages i-x
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  2. Low-Probability/High-Consequence Risk Analysis Models

    1. Front Matter

      Pages 1-3
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    2. Precursors to Potential Severe Core Damage Accidents: 1969–1979

      • J. W. Minarick, C. A. Kukielka
      Pages 5-32

    3. Modeling Rare Events: The Frequencies of Fires in Nuclear Power Plants

      • M. Kazarians, G. Apostolakis
      Pages 33-53

    4. Flood Prediction with Causal Analysis

      • Thomas P. Ballestero, Daryl B. Simons, Ruh-Ming Li
      Pages 55-63

    5. Methodology for Flood Risk Analysis for Nuclear Power Plants

      • David P. Wagner, Myron L. Casada, J. B. Fussell
      Pages 65-80

    6. Dam Failures: Insights to Nuclear Power Risks

      • William L. Baldewicz
      Pages 81-90

    7. The Trade-off Between Expected Risk and the Potential for Large Accidents

      • F. Niehaus, G. de Leon, M. Cullingford
      Pages 91-105

    8. Models for the use of Expert Opinions

      • A. Mosleh, G. Apostolakis
      Pages 107-124

  3. Uncertainties Associated with Low-Probability/High-Consequence Risk Analysis Results

    1. Front Matter

      Pages 125-126
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    2. Bayesian Estimates for the Rate of three Mile Island Type Releases

      • Peter G. Groer
      Pages 127-136

    3. An Incentive Approach to Eliciting Probabilities

      • Ross D. Shachter
      Pages 137-152

    4. Robust Risk Analysis: The Need for it in Nuclear Probabilistic Risk Evaluations

      • W. E. Vesely
      Pages 153-160

    5. A Kalman Filter Model for Determining Block and Trickle SNM Losses

      • R. E. Barlow, M. J. Durst, N. G. Smiriga
      Pages 161-179

  4. Statistics in Low-Probability/High-Consequence Risk Analysis

    1. Front Matter

      Pages 181-185
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    2. Predicting Low-Probability/High-Consequence Events

      • H. F. Martz, M. C. Bryson
      Pages 187-199

    3. Statistical Methods of Risk Assessment for Energy Technology

      • K. G. Vohra
      Pages 201-215

  5. Case Studies of Recent Risk Analyses

    1. Front Matter

      Pages 217-220
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    2. Lessons Learned from First Generation Nuclear Plant Probabilistic Risk Assessments

      • B. John Garrick
      Pages 221-238

    3. Use of Risk Analysis Methods in the LNG Industry

      • P. J. Pelto
      Pages 239-255
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Keywords

About this book

In recent years public attention has focused on an array of low-probability/high-consequence (LC/HC) events that pose a signif­ icant threat to human health, safety, and the environment. At the same time, public and private sector responsibilities for the assessment and management of such events have grown because of a perceived need to anticipate, prevent, or reduce the risks. In attempting to meet these responsibilities, legislative, judicial, regulatory, and private sector institutions have had to deal with the extraordinarily complex problem of assessing and balancing LP/ HC risks against the costs and ben if its of risk reduction. The need to help society cope with LP/HC events such as nuclear power plant accidents, toxic spills, chemical plant explosions, and transportation accidents has given rise to the development of a new intellectual endeavor: LP/HC risk analysis. The scope and complexity of these analyses require a high degree of cooperative effort on the part of specialists from many f~elds. Analyzing technical, social, and value issues requires the efforts of physicists, biologists, geneticists, statisticians, chemists, engineers, political scientists, sociologists, decision analysts, management scientists, economists, psychologists, ethicists, lawyers, and policy analysts. Included in this volume are papers by authors in each of these disciplines. The papers share in common a focus on one or more of the following questions that are generic to the analysis of LP/HC risks.

Editors and Affiliations

  • Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, USA

    Ray A. Waller

  • U.S. National Science Foundation, USA

    Vincent T. Covello

Bibliographic Information

  • Book Title: Low-Probability High-Consequence Risk Analysis

  • Book Subtitle: Issues, Methods, and Case Studies

  • Editors: Ray A. Waller, Vincent T. Covello

  • Series Title: Advances in Risk Analysis

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4757-1818-8

  • Publisher: Springer New York, NY

  • eBook Packages: Springer Book Archive

  • Copyright Information: Springer Science+Business Media New York 1984

  • Softcover ISBN: 978-1-4757-1820-1Published: 01 December 2013

  • eBook ISBN: 978-1-4757-1818-8Published: 21 November 2013

  • Edition Number: 1

  • Number of Pages: X, 571

  • Number of Illustrations: 3 b/w illustrations

  • Topics: Science, Humanities and Social Sciences, multidisciplinary

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